THE TINUBU CHALLENGE

Akani Alaka writes on the ongoing battle for the presidential ticket of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC in 2023 in which former Lagos governor, Asiwaju Tinubu is the leading candidate.

Love him or hate him, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu has become a factor that cannot be ignored when talking about politics, especially since Nigeria’s return to democracy. As governor of Lagos between 1999 and 2007, Tinubu grabbed media headlines with his strides in the development of the state just as with his battle with the President Olusegun Obasanjo-led Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, the government in and out of the courtroom in the quest for so-called true federalism.

Significantly, he survived the PDP blitzkrieg that swept away his Alliance for Democracy, AD colleagues out of office in the 2003 election and went on to form Action Congress, later rechristened Action Congress of Nigeria which produced governors as well as states and national lawmakers between 2007 and 2015, especially in the Southwest between.

A Life-long Presidential Ambition

But Tinubu’s status as a political strategist pivoted many miles higher with his involvement in the merger of political parties that gave birth to the now ruling All Progressives Congress, APC,  ahead of the 2015 general election. APC, the first successful political merger since Nigeria’s on and off experiment with democracy went on to win the presidential election with President Muhammadu Buhari as the candidate, ending PDP’s 16 years domination of Nigeria’s political space.

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President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure will expire on May 2023 and preparations are in top gear in the ruling and opposition parties to succeed him. After months of speculations and ‘calls on him to run’  Tinubu after a visit to Buhari in Aso Rock presidential villa told journalists that he is indeed one of those keen to be the next President of Nigeria on the platform of the ruling party.

“I have informed the President of my intention but I’ve not informed Nigerians yet. I am still consulting and I have no problem consulting I have not set a parameter of limitation to the extent of how many people will I consult. You will soon hear all you want to hear; it is a categorical declaration. You’ve gotten that truth from me that I have informed Mr President of my ambition,” Tinubu told journalists on 10 January at the presidential villa.

He added that as a democrat, the President did not oppose his ambition which he described as ‘life-long’ but instead asked him to consult more and sell himself to Nigerians. He added that he has the confidence, vision, and capacity to build on the foundation laid by the Buhari’s government to turn around the country.

Following that declaration, the former Lagos Governor had embarked on a string of consultations across the country meeting with political, traditional leaders as well as other stakeholders to sell his presidential ambition.

He has also met with members of the party in the National Assembly, including ex-national lawmakers who will be delegates at the primary for choosing the presidential candidate of APC.

Why Tinubu

Just as he was busy going around the country, groups and individuals canvassing support for the former Lagos governor’s presidential ambition are mushrooming daily across the country. In the same vein, posters and billboards advertising Tinubu’s presidential bid are emerging daily in various parts of the country.

In presenting himself as an aspirant for Nigeria’s presidency, Tinubu cited his achievements in Lagos, especially the feat he recorded in turning around the revenue of the state.

He said his successors had built on the achievement such that from an average of N600 million internally generated revenue in 1999, the Lagos government grossed over N40 billion monthly, a feat which made the state one of the few that could survive without allocation from the Federal Government.

He also touted his ability to discover talents and contributions to the emergence of a new set of political actors, especially from the Southwest.

Tinubu’s supporters, for instance, never got tired of reminding everyone of the role he played in the formation and the success of the APC in dislodging the PDP from power as well as in the election of President Muhammadu Buhari and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.

“We have discovered a man who is ready to sacrifice all he has for his fatherland. A man who had comfortable control of the entire Southwest and six solid governors yet threw everything into the alliance with President Muhammadu Buhari with 12 million votes but with one governor to build a new pan-Nigerian party of his dream,” James Faleke, member of the House of Representatives who is now leading Tinubu Support Group, TSG, the umbrella body of groups supporting the presidential ambition of the former governor said.

“This is a man who left office in 2007 yet remains popular till today because he is focused, consistent and persistent. He has been the central figure in Nigerian politics,” he added.

Tinubu Unfit For Presidency

But Tinubu’s opponents had cited his age, health and alleged feeding off of the Lagos resources as some of the factors that should count against him. They also accused him of playing the godfather and greed through the ways he has been influencing the emergence of successive governors and other office holders in Lagos since 2015.

For example, a video showing Tinubu’s shaky hands as he held a microphone addressing a crowd of political supporters had recently made the rounds on social media. In the same vein, just before he informed President Buhari of his ambition, Tinubu had spent weeks in the United Kingdom where he went to take care of his knees.

His critics said Nigeria cannot afford another president that will be frequently going in and out of hospital outside the country like the incumbent Buhari.

They also argued that the next Nigerian president should be a younger person, with enough energy to tackle the multiplicity of challenges facing the country. They argued that this alone is enough to knock Tinubu who recently celebrated his 70 birthday out of the presidential race.

Bode George, former national deputy national chairman of PDP is one of those who have been vociferous in condemnation of the ambition of the former Lagos governor. In a recent interview, George accused Tinubu of plundering the resources of the state with his leash on successive governors of Lagos. “This fellow has plundered and mismanaged the finances of this state to a stupor that calls for attention,” said the PDP chieftain.

He alleged that Tinubu’s nepotism of fixing his family members in positions will get worse if he becomes president. “Who is perpetually in the Senate representing Lagos, three times already? So he will be President of Nigeria, his wife will be Senate President of Nigeria, his son will be Governor of Lagos and his daughter will be the Iya-Oloja General of Lagos?”  George who had vowed to leave the country if Tinubu becomes President in 2023 asked.

In response to the allegations, Tinubu had said the job of a Nigerian president is not that of a bricklayer, but intellect which, he said, he had in abundance. He and his supporters had also always challenged those who accused him of corruption to take their complaints to the anti-graft agencies.

Tinubu, South Deserves APC Presidential Ticket

Speaking in the same vein, former governor of Borno State and Senator representing Borno Central Senatorial district, Kashim Shettima argued that the presidency is not a brick-laying exercise but for people who can come up with the best ideas to redeem the country.

“Asiwaju’s credentials aren’t only appealing; they are proof of the qualities this country needs to redeem its vast potentials and possibilities. We are here to testify to this power of ideas, one that overturned the fortunes of Lagos State and sustained its supremacy as the largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa and kept the opposition alive when it was more profitable to sell out,” Shetimma, one of the prominent Northerners championing Tinubu’s 2023 presidency project in the Northern part of the country said.

He also argued that Tinubu must be given the right of first refusal for the APC presidential ticket because of the role he played in the formation of APC and securing the 2015 presidential ticket for Buhari, just as he argued for the zoning of the APC presidential ticket to the Southern part of the country in 2023.

He said: “In 2015, some aspirants with very huge war chest were itching to clinch the ticket of the APC. Like the Rock of Gibraltar, Asiwaju and his progressive team stood solidly behind the candidature of President Muhammadu Buhari. We shall have minimal thresholds below which we won’t operate and the irreducible minimum is that after eight years of Presidency in the North, the logic, common sense, equity, justice and fairness demand that power should move to the Southern part of the country and who is better qualified? Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu should be given the choice of first refusal. More than any other person, he has sacrificed more for this democracy, for the APC.”

Shetimma had also recently argued that the North must support Tinubu’s 2023 presidential ambition because the former Lagos governor had in the past made the platforms he created available for people from the zone to contest the presidency.

He recalled that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar contested for presidency on the platform of AC in 2007 and former EFCC Chairman,  Mallam Nuhu Ribadu was the presidential candidate of ACN in 2011.

Also, President Buhari’s associate and long-time friend of Tinubu, Senator Abu Ibrahim, said the former Lagos State governor had support in the North because of the belief that he was instrumental to the emergence of Buhari as president.

“It was when Asiwaju came into the merger with Buhari that Buhari was able to win the presidency. He tried three times before then and he failed. But the moment Tinubu came in, Buhari won,” said Senator Ibrahim who claimed that of all the aspirants in and out of APC, Tinubu has the biggest support base in the North.

He argued that the best way for the APC to win the presidency in 2023 is to put Tinubu on the ballot as the over 12 million voters of Buhari in Northern Nigeria are now with him.

“He is the leading aspirant now and I cannot see how APC can bring out another person as its presidential candidate except Tinubu. I don’t know, but I don’t think that is possible. He has the support base. He has the qualifications to be a good president,” Ibrahim said.

Odds Against Tinubu

However, analysts said such optimism has been dampened by the events and the outcome of the 26 March National Convention of the APC.

At the convention, there was no doubting the fact that Tinubu, popularly called Jagaban or Asiwaju by his admirers would have easily won if there was a contest for the presidential aspirant for the highest number of posters and billboards in and around the Eagle Square venue of the event.

But the election of Abdullahi Adamu, the former governor of Nasarawa State at the behest of President Muhammadu Buhari was said not to be in favour of Tinubu’s ambition.

The former Lagos governor was said to have preferred Tanko Al-Makura, one of the aspirants for the position of chairmanship of APC after Buhari told the governors and other leading delegates at the convention about his preference. Just like in the case of Adamu, other members of the NWC were elected by consensus.

While Adamu has not directly expressed his opposition to Tinubu, he had at various times said he is not in favour of zoning the presidential ticket of the party to any part of the country.

Indeed, Governor Yahaya Bello, one of the few Northerners who have so far expressed interest in contesting for the presidential ticket of APC dismissed the argument for zoning at an event last weekend in Abuja. “The APC is still the party that will produce the next president of Nigeria. The party is very strategic. Forget about zoning or no zoning; it is about who is a leader and would put the party together,” said the Kogi governor.

Thus, those pinning Tinubu’s ambition on the fact that the APC has already zoned its presidential ticket to the South will have to be on the watch out for developments in the party in the next few days. Sources within the APC said if the party decided to vote to select its presidential candidate during its primary, Tinubu may likely win because of the legworks and support he has been able to garner among governors and potential delegates across the country.

However, speaking during his visit to Aso Rock presidential villa last Thursday, 75-year-old Adamu said the party could use direct, indirect and consensus mode to choose its presidential candidate: “When we get there, we’ll talk, alright? But the options are there; direct primaries, indirect, and consensus. The party has a choice which of these paths to take.”

But some members of the party are already pushing for a consensus arrangement which will result in Buhari endorsing one of the presidential aspirants who will be ratified at the elective convention of the party just like in the case of Adamu.

Some analysts have suggested that while it is always difficult to know the thinking and direction of Buhari, some analysts said President may not be favourably disposed to endorsing Tinubu as the consensus candidate of the party given the way he and other top members of his administration were absent at the recent birthday celebration of the former governor in Lagos.

Aside from Tinubu and Yahaya Bello, the other APC presidential aspirants are Governor of Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi and a former governor of Abia State, Senator Orji Kalu; and ex-governor of Imo State, Rochas Okorocha and the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi who declared his presidential ambition last Saturday. Also, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele, Minister of Labour, Chris Ngige, Minister of Science and Technology, Ogbonnaya Onu and Minister of State Education are some of those rumoured to be getting set to declare their presidential ambition.

While the Tinubu camp is opposed to consensus, most of the other aspirants are hoping that endorsement by the president will earn them the support of governors who are in control of the delegates and consequently, ratification as the APC presidential candidate at the convention.

Hence, there were also rumours that as part of the bid to actualize the demand for the Southeast for the presidency, Buhari may endorse his Minister of Science and Technology as the APC presidential candidate. Indeed, some stakeholders in the South had called on Tinubu to drop his ambition and support aspirants from the Southeast for the position.

The argument is that having somebody from the Southwest in Aso rock will not be fair to other parts of Southern Nigeria, especially after the eight years of Obasanjo’s presidency and eight years of Osinbajo’s vice presidency.

Other aspirants from the Southeast hoping for such endorsement by the president include Umahi, Okorocha and Emefiele. Amaechi, the Minister of Transportation is also positioning himself as Igbo for this purpose. Though he is yet to declare, the camp of the vice president is also hoping that Buhari will endorse his number two man to succeed him, especially if it was eventually agreed that the presidential ticket should be micro-zoned to the Southwest.

Already, supporters of Osinbajo and Tinubu are at war in the media and on the various social media platforms over which of them should get the APC presidential ticket. If Osinbajo declares and the fight gets too dirty between him and Tinubu, the president may just be forced to look outside their circle, a source told The Nigerian Xpress last week.

Apart from the speculations that some Aso Rock Villa goons are more favourably disposed to the likes of Transportation Minister Rotimi Amaechi, Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo, and even the likes of Fayemi, Fashola and Ogbonnaya Onu as possible dark horses, there is also the religious angle to the obstacles to Tinubu’s presidential ambition in APC. As a Muslim, he will be expected to pick a Christian as a running mate to balance the ticket. But permutations by some APC analysts had indicated that a Christian vice presidential candidate may be a hard sell in the mostly Muslim North where the APC hopes to earn the bulk of its votes in 2023. As such, some supporters of the former governor, including Abdulmumin Jibrin had argued that he can run with a Muslim, a situation that will foist a Muslim- muslim ticket on the APC to the chagrin of Christians in the South. Various groups in the South, including the Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN have warned that they will not support a Muslim-muslim or Christian- Christian ticket. the other hand, other presidential aspirants in the South are mostly Christians and will not have problem balancing the ticket with a Muslim from the North if they emerge candidate of the party. This, it was learnt will be one of the arguments against Tinubu ahead of the presidential primary.

Then, after all these, the alleged romance of the Jagaban with a complete different party, the SDP, is also said to be muddying things up for the former governor of Lagos State

Then, there is also the religious angle to the obstacles to Tinubu’s presidential ambition in APC. As a Muslim, he will be expected to pick a Christian as a running mate to balance the ticket. But permutations by some APC analysts had indicated that a Christian vice-presidential candidate may be a hard sell in the mostly Muslim North where the APC hopes to earn the bulk of its votes in 2023. As such, some supporters of the former governor, including Abdulmumin Jibrin had argued that he could run with a Muslim, a situation that will foist a Muslim-Muslim ticket on the APC to the chagrin of Christians in the South. Various groups in the South, including the Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN have warned that they would not support a Muslim-Muslim or Christian-Christian ticket. On the other hand, other presidential aspirants in the South are mostly Christians and will not have a problem balancing the ticket with a Muslim from the North if any of them emerged as the party’s candidate. This, it was learnt, would be one of the arguments against Tinubu ahead of the presidential primary.

Meanwhile, there have been speculations in the past few days that Tinubu may be considering his options and may have decided to pitch his tent with the Social Democratic Party, SDP if the opportunity of realizing his ambition on the APC platform proves difficult.

Tinubu’s exit will certainly further dim the prospect of APC retaining power in 2023 which has been already badly damaged by the growing insecurity in the country and the awful performance of President Buhari. Surely, an interesting battle for the soul of APC lies ahead.