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Speakership: The odds against Gbajabiamila

Akani Alaka

Despite the best efforts of All Progressives Congress, APC, the party with a clear majority of members-elect, it seems Nigerians will have to wait until the inauguration of the ninth National Assembly to know the next Speaker of the House of Representatives.

This was the indication even after last Tuesday’s dinner by the members-elect and the leadership of the ruling party, led by National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole with President Muhammadu Buhari where the issue of the next Speaker and other principal officers of the House of Representatives were supposed to have been settled.  APC’s National Publicly Secretary, Mr. Lanre Issa-Onilu, had confirmed the speculation about the party’s preference for the leadership of the Green Chamber when he announced after the dinner that the party had adopted Femi Gbajabiamila for the position.

According to him, the party adopted Gbajabiamila, representing Surulere 1 Federal Constituency, who currently serves as the House Leader after extensive deliberations with APC House of Representatives members-elect at a dinner with President Buhari at the Banquet Hall of Aso Villa. He also added that the party had zoned the position of the Deputy Speaker to the North Central. Further giving insight into what transpired at the dinner, Abdulmumin Jibrin, the Director-General of Gbajabiamila Campaign Organisation, said there was an official presentation of the candidates for the position of the speaker to the president. He added that the president expects that the party will effectively take charge of the situation and do what is right for the country, the APC, and the National Assembly.

No retreat, no surrender

As it emerged few hours after the dinner some members of APC in the House of Representatives obviously did not think that their party’s choice is right for the country and even, the National Assembly. Some of the lawmakers at the dinner also disputed what happened on the occasion, alleging that the claim that the president endorsed a particular person for the speakership position was not true.

The first dissension against the leadership of APC was as expected, from the North Central caucus of the party, which has been laying claim to the position, based on what it described as its contributions to the victory of the party, especially in the presidential election.

 “We are not fighting the party; we are not. We shall not; we are only giving the party an opportunity to come back and look at the zoning and look at what we are saying. We have right to vie for positions; there’s freedom of expression,” Hon. John Dyegh, representing Gboko/Tarka Federal Constituency of Benue State, said few hours after the endorsement of Gbajabiamila.

Dyegh, who also indicated that he would contest against the party’s anointed choice for the speakership position, further told journalists that apart from being the third largest contributor to the 2019 election success of the party, fairness and equity demands the North Central be considered for the position. This, he argued, was because the region has never produced the Speaker or Deputy Speaker since the return to democracy in 1999.

Members of the North Central APC caucus had also said they deserved the position based on equity, justice and reward with the emergence of President  Buhari from North West, Vice President Yemi Osibanjo from South West (as Gbajabiamila), and the adoption of Lawan from North East for Senate President.

Dyegh joined the ranks of elected APC members of the House of Representatives, who have vowed to go on with their ambitions in spite of their party’s position even before the open endorsement of Gbajabiamila. Before Dyegh’s last week’s declaration, the two prominent APC lawmakers from the North Central geopolitical zone, who had indicated their interest for the position are Idris Wase and Umar Bago.

Wase, who is currently the Deputy House Leader, hails from Plateau State in North Central and was first elected into the House in 2007. Sources told this newspaper last week that the lawmaker believed that he has enough support among members to upturn the apple cart, as related to the preference of his party for the leadership of the House.

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Also, canvassing to be Speaker from the North Central Zone is Bago, who represents the Chanchaga Federal Constituency of Niger State and is the Chairman, House Committee on Maritime Safety. He also argued that the APC national caucus and other organs of the party have never met to adopt a position on zoning and micro-zoning of the position of Speaker.

In a statement by the spokesman of his campaign organisation, Victor Ogene, the lawmaker described the claim of adoption of Gbajabiamila by the president, as a poorly choreographed attempt to sell the candidacy of the Lagos lawmaker, even as he vowed that he would not be dissuaded from pursuing his ambition to lead the ninth House of Representatives.

“For us, therefore, there is no retreat, no surrender, in our demand for equity and justice in the zoning arrangement, and the ultimate desire of many members-elect to be allowed to choose their own leaders,” he stated.

The South-East challenge

 Like the North Central, lawmakers elect from the South East are also making a claim to the position for the Speaker of the House on the basis of equity and justice. Leading the charge for the South East in the battle for the speakership are Nkeiruka Onyejeocha and Chike Okafor. Onyejeocha, who represents Isukwuato/Umunneochi Federal Constituency of Abia State and the only female lawmaker, who haS declared interest in the speakership contest so far, currently chairs the House Committee on Aviation.

She was first elected to the House in 2007 on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. She, however, defected to APC just before the 2019 general election. She has received the support of gender advocates, who believe that her emergence as speaker will advance the campaign for greater inclusion of women in leadership positions in National Assembly in particular and in politics in general.

On the other hand, Okafor was first elected to the House in 2015 to represent Ehime Mbano/Ihitte Uboma/Obowo Federal Constituency of Imo State. Okafor, like lawmakers from the North Central also justified the demand of the South East for the position, based on the number of votes the APC presidential candidate recorded in the sub-region in the 2019 presidential election.

He noted that the 403,000 votes scored by President Buhari in the 2019 presidential election was over 100 per cent improvement over the votes scored by the APC candidate in 2015.

“There is no geo-political zone in Nigeria that doubled its vote haul of 2015 in 2019 and improved on it performance in 2015 by more than 100 per cent except the South East,” he said.

Apart from the numbers, Okafor also urged APC to consider South East for the position in the interest of social justice and political stability.

“It feels the pulse of the nation and weighs in on equitable inclusion of federating units of the country in line with the provisions of the constitution of the country and the party, even as it affects sharing of political offices. And looking at all these indices, as a party, we have not given the South East a fair deal! Not yet,” he said.

The lawmakers from the South East are also arguing that while the zone was not allowed to occupy any of the principal positions in the House at the eighth House because no ranking lawmaker was elected from the zone, the situation is different this time around.

Other challengers

Other members of the House, who have expressed interest in the Speakership position include Mohammed Tahir Monguno, who represents Marte/Monguno/Nganzai Federal Constituency of Borno State in the North East and a fourth term member of the House, who is currently the chairman of the House Committee on Agricultural Production and Services and chairman of the North East caucus.

Also on the growing list of aspirants for the speakership are Abdulrasak Namdas, the chairman, House Committee on Media and Public Affairs, representing Jada/Ganye/Mayo-Belwa/Toungo Federal Constituency of Adamawa State, Magaji Da’UAliyu who represents Birnin Kudu/Buji Federal Constituency in Jigawa State, the current Chief Whip of the House, Al-hassan Ado-Doguwa, Aminu Suleiman; chairman, House Committee on Finance, Hon Ibrahim Babangida; and former Special Adviser to President Buhari on the House, Hon Abdulrahman Kawu.

Namdas said he is still in the speakership position in spite of the party’s endorsement of Gbajabiamila. “We have seven weeks to the election. Even the president said we should sit down and make our house in order. I am in the race. We will continue to look at activities as they unfold in the House,” he said in an interview in reaction to the endorsement.

Most of the other aspirants have not expressed their view on the status of their aspiration following the adoption of Gbajabiamila by the party as its candidate at the time of writing this story last week.

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 Gbajabiamila’s biggest headaches

However, it was gathered that the greatest threats to Gbajabiamila’s ambition were the two lawmakers from the North Central, Wase and Bago, who are daily gaining popularity among the lawmakers. This aside, the two lawmakers have also been deploying groups and individuals to convince APC and President Buhari on the necessity of zoning the speakership position to their area.

Such groups have argued that allowing the number two citizens of the country (Osinbajo) and the number four person (Gbajabiamila) to emerge from the same zone will be against the provisions of Section 14(3) of the 1999 Constitution as amended.  “At the last presidential election, the north-central geo-political zone gave 2,465,599 votes as compared to 2,036,450 votes from the south-west. So, the idea of the Speaker being zoned to the same state and zone is saying that the north-central is useless, least important in spite of our political equity and contributions to the 2019 elections,” Bago said in an interview in reflection of this sentiment.

They have also dismissed the argument that Saraki, who is about to end his tenure as the President of the Senate is from the north central. It was gathered that the announcement of the zoning of the position of the deputy speaker to the zone by APC at the same time it announced its choice of the Speaker was part of the moves by the party to douse agitations.

Apart from the two APC lawmakers, it was gathered that those pushing for Gbajabiamila’s speakership are also keenly watching the steps of Yakubu Dogara, the current Speaker. Though he had defected to the PDP, Dogara is still believed to be interested in retaining his position. Though the APC won about 220 seats in the House, supporters of the Speaker believed he can get the about 130 block votes of the PDP members and scores of votes from rebellious members of the ruling party to return to his position as he did in 2015.

This, they argued was because the constitution did not stipulate that the position of the speakership can only be occupied by the party with majority of members.

This newspaper also argued that a subtle campaign against Gbajabiamila based on the support of the lawmaker’s ambition by APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is already going on.

The argument is that Tinubu’s interest in who occupies the speakership position is part of the former Lagos governor’s 2023 presidential ambition, which should be resisted. And though they generally agreed that he has the experience and the competence for the position, some lawmakers have also accused Gbajabiamila of being arrogant and inaccessible to his colleagues.

However, for Gbajabiamila, the good news is that not all the lawmakers shared this opinion about him. “Femi Gbajabiamila and my good self-came to the house in 2003. We have worked together and I know him in and out. I can’t see anybody that is more qualified than him. He understands the house rules and constitution. Aside that, he is a very fair-minded person, a networker. We from the south-west are giving you one of our best. Honestly I will be with him all through,” Wale Oke, an Osun State PDP member of the House said.

His supporters have also argued that as the current Majority Leader of the House, Gbajabiamila is best placed to transform to the position of the Speaker. Also, the lawmaker has in his corner this time around, Abdulmumin Jibrin (APC, Kano) who worked against his emergence as Speaker when he was similarly endorsed for the position in 2015.

Jibrin promised that his group will work hard, consult, reach out to everyone, especially all members-elect, across party lines to ensure that the Lagos lawmaker emerged the Speaker of the 9th House of Representatives.

“The candidacy of Femi is not about him; it is about our democracy, bringing back civility, adopting what we always preach and global best practise. I will not be making a mistake if I say Gbajabiamila stands out as the best candidate we can offer for that position; experience, brilliance, astuteness, organisation, relationship,” he said.

Nigerians will wait until the inauguration of the ninth National Assembly to know if other lawmakers really agree with him.

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