Presidential Election Court: REMOVING TINUBU’LL BE DIFFICULT -PDP chieftain

Ayodele Olalere

Dr Tokunbo Pearse is a chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. He was also a former governorship aspirant, a public affairs analyst and convener of Reset Lagos PDP.
In this interview with The Nigerian Xpress, he speaks on issues of national interest, including the ongoing case before the Presidential Election Court, and the removal of fuel subsidy, among others.
According to him, the ongoing attempts by the Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi as well as that of the People Democratic Party candidate, Atiku Abubakar, to convince the election tribunal to upturn President Bola Tinubu’s victory may turn out as a futile exercise.

The APC government headed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has finally been inaugurated and is now in charge in the last few weeks. What’s your reaction to the steps taken so far since he assumed office, has he started well?

Well, his first step as he was being inaugurated was the proclamation of the removal of fuel subsidy. I think that was a wrong move. It was heartless, reckless and ill-informed. It was a bourgeois proclamation that will benefit oil suppliers and punish the average oil consumers. Out of 200 million Nigerians, 150 million Nigerians will be earning less than N100,000 per month and they will be affected very negatively. The prices of everyday commodities from food to transportation, anything you want to buy, household items, everything will go. With the minimum wage at N30,000 or below per month, with more than 80 per cent of the population earning less than N200,000 per month, we would suffer a lot because of that fuel subsidy removal.

Once you have fuel subsidy removal and you have 80 per cent of your population not having money in hand to spend when they bought fuel for their generators and their cars and paid for transportation, everything becomes expensive. It reduces the money in circulation, and once that happens, you are going to have a recession. Even private sector employment would decrease, private sector investment would reduce, the economy would shrink because of that proclamation on the removal of fuel subsidy, and we may fall into recession. I think the president started very badly.
Other things he had done were normal for a new president when you get into office. You appoint your officers into key positions which he has done, and that he has done fairly. I think he has not been as parochial and insensitive to the Federal Character as Buhari was and in that sense, he has done well. Quick appointments and fair, ethnically balanced. So far it appears to be so.

Concerning the fuel subsidy removal, some people are commending the President for taking such a step as they said the subsidy money had for a long time been going into private pockets, don’t you also think in that direction?

What I think is that people have misunderstood what exactly has been going on with the oil subsidy. In the first place, subsidy money has not been going into private pockets. Yes, it is not true that subsidy money has been going into private pockets. We have been making a lot of money, have we not been enjoying subsidy? We have been enjoying subsidy and we have been paying a relatively low oil price which means the masses have been enjoying subsidy.

If it is going into private pockets, it is nonsense because marketers are making profits. You give them a subsidy and they are making profits. It is the government that would say they are no longer going to pay them so much for subsidy.

For instance, if the government had been subsidising the price of fuel at N500 per litre, that’s what the government has been subsidising, and they have been giving marketers N300 subsidy per litre of petrol, the government can now say instead of giving you N300 per litre as a subsidy, we are reducing it to N200 per litre. You see, the government is not doing its job. The oil industry is filled with serious corruption,

monumental corruption. Look at the amount of crude oil being stolen under the nose of the former Minister of Petroleum Resources, former President Muhammadu Buhari, that is where the oil is going.

When you talk about corruption, that is where the corruption is and who are the people stealing this crude oil? Look, there is no excuse for NNPCL to remove fuel subsidy. I am doing a thorough analysis of it and when I finish, you will see. There is so much money being wasted, being looted in the industry. Government should not pass the buck to the people but deal with where the problem is, where the economy is leaking. That is where they should check. It’s not the money you are spending on the subsidy. It sounds like a lot of money, but when you look at the amount of money that is being made in the oil industry, it is insignificant.

The vice president said the oil marketers would be fighting the government because they removed the subsidy. Are they fighting the government? No. What happened? They went to see the president, commended the president, thanked him for removing the subsidy and even said they were going to donate to his transportation plan for the future, what does that tell you? They are not suffering from subsidy removal. Are you not suffering from subsidy removal? The masses are the ones suffering. I have proved the vice president wrong.
You know what they have done, this is simple economics, Economics 101. When you stop giving them subsidy, what do they do now? Before, they were making N500 because the government was giving them a subsidy but now, the money they are losing from removing the subsidy, what have they done? They have passed it to the consumers, we are the people suffering. The government is supposed to protect the interest of the people. This government is protecting the interest of the marketers and the oil belongs to the people.
Look, in a country where you have not given us fuel subsidy for help, you are not giving us subsidy for transportation, you are not giving us subsidy for education, you are not giving us subsidy for so many things, you are now taking away the only subsidy you are giving us, which is the oil subsidy, it is going to mess up the economy.

But don’t you think removing the subsidy could at the end of the day, maybe in two to three months from now, bring down prices of products and things begin to normalize generally?

In the first place, you and I are Nigerians, may God spare our lives. When the price goes up, does it ever come down?

Are you not looking at a situation when our refineries and the much- talked about Dangote refinery will become fully operational in the country, and there may not be a need for fuel importation?

See, this is where the problem is. You know I do this and nobody has appointed me to do this. Nobody is paying me to do this. It just pains me that the populace, the people are always misinformed, that’s why I am doing it. Now, listen to this. This is unbelievable.

On the 1st of June 2023, Mele Kyari, the Chairman of NNPCL was on Arise TV and he said even with Dangote’s production, and that from Port-Harcourt, Rivers State Refinery and any other production, pump price of fuel will not reduce. It is on record. This high price is not likely to come down. If it doesn’t go down, you see, one should start accepting it. It’s difficult to go back. So you expect marketers to now reduce their price? I doubt it.
This is a bourgeois government leaning towards and pleasing the rich and the richer at the expense of the poor masses. When I say masses, this is something else people don’t understand about Nigeria. N30,000 minimum wage is not the worst case of our situation. Do you know what it is? Only 10 per cent of Nigerians make over N200,000 in a month. On transportation alone, you spend almost N50,000 a month. Now, as of today, how much do you spend on transportation? My friend, we are suffering. This is a wicked, heartless government, and Tinubu is continuing the abuse, exploitation and punishment of Nigerians. So this oil subsidy removal is a problem.

You belong to PDP and even your presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, during campaigns, talked about his decision to remove fuel subsidy as well if elected into office, so what do you say to this?

Okay, very simple, I would answer you two ways. One, he is not the president. If he had been president and I supported him, you can ask me. I can guarantee you that if Atiku had become president, and allowed oil subsidy removal the way President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had done it, I would oppose him. And I want to guarantee you that Atiku being a very sensitive person, wouldn’t do it this way.
So whether it is PDP or APC, I am an analyst. I just tell the truth. It is wrong and it is not fair. It is not a question of PDP or APC. It is wrong, a burden and it would cripple this economy.

What is the way out now?

Retain the subsidy, and go after all the money that is owed to the government. Stop the leakages in stealing crude oil, and control all the resources of the country. Look between FIRS, NPA, NNPC and several other companies, private companies. The money that should be paid into the federation account by government agencies is not being paid. If they paid that money, forget about the subsidy. We can afford it any day and afford so many things. Trillions of naira have not been paid into the government federation account. The money is being held by private people in government agencies. That is where you look to save money, not remove oil subsidy.

I give you one example, Land Dues that are supposed to be paid by some 372,000 people who got government housing have not been paid for over 15 years. Collect that money and you are going to save N6 trillion. If you do all of these things, you have enough money and you are going to build the economy. Look, even if you are selling petrol at N1000 per litre if the money is there and people are making money, it’s not a problem. Everything is relative to the amount of money people can make, you understand me.

Alongside the removal of fuel subsidy, the electricity sector is also talking about increasing the cost of supply. What do you say about this?

Nobody in Nigeria is going to have money to do anything, only a few would survive. People would not be going to work o! They would be avoiding going to work and you can’t sack them because they would go and get doctor’s leave of absence, all sorts of things, and they would be stealing from work. This is a commodity everybody is using. The poorest person must have electricity whether by PHCN or by generators using petrol, both need money, is it going to come down? You increased the price of diesel, companies have been leaving Nigeria because of this very thing because power has been expensive.
So we will have to review our whole economic strategy. We have to diversify the economy, we can’t keep depending on crude oil. By the way, these refineries that they are setting up are good but in about 20 years, they are not going to find any market. That is why they are trying to make all the money from us here, whereas they should be exporting.

But people are looking at the hike in electricity bills as a way of opening avenues for people to seek an alternative source of power for themselves. What is your take on this?

Well, now that states have been given powers to generate electricity by themselves, other things have to happen to make it possible for states to do that.

Like what?  

States too have to generate funds, they have to remove mineral resources existing in states from exclusive legislative lists so that states can generate their revenues. When we say State Police, you can give them that, and they have to go with other things. They should be able to use their mineral resources which are abundant everywhere.

The Ondo State axis is the third-largest deposit of bitumen in the world. So we have oil here, bauxite is there, uranium, gold, everything, let them use them. The latest thing in the world market that is used to power electric cars is abundant in Kwara State and Kaduna State. Let them generate their money as they do in the American Federation. That is it. Once they generate all that, then they can afford to invest in electricity generation because you cannot leave power generation totally in the hands of the private sector, the government must also monitor it. So the government must have investment there, they must have money too. Now, as things stand, with increasing petrol and electricity prices, 80 per cent of Nigerians are burdened under serious economic pressure.

One of the greatest challenges that Nigeria was having under Buhari’s administration is insecurity. Now President Tinubu has removed and replaced all the Service Chiefs. Don’t you think there is going to be a new outlook concerning security challenges in the country with the steps taken so far? Don’t you think that the country’s economy is going to thrive in a secure environment?

If security improves, the economy will improve, but the fact that you have changed one set of military people, the service chiefs, does not guarantee the country’s security. Former President Muhammadu Buhari did the same a few times, nothing changed, so we don’t know yet. Let us see how they perform.
But in terms of security, something I mentioned earlier. There is a need for State Police. You see, insecurity in the country is not a factor of the Army, Navy or Air Force. It’s a factor of the police and the situation of police in Nigeria is very poor, we don’t have enough. The appointment of the police has been too political. So once all of these things go, if states are empowered, not just authorised to have their police, if they are given access to their resources to generate revenues, it is only then they can afford to set up State Police. Police at the state level, and police at the local government level, those two have to be in place.
Look at America, you have two or three layers of policing. Once you have that, then we can go. Things have to go simultaneously, it’s not just one thing, no, things just have to go together. But State Police will help a lot to secure movement and safety in the state. We need to have Highway Police. Police must be everywhere.

What is your take on Student Loan Law signed by the President?

I think that instead of student loans, what we should have is a scholarship scheme, because of the student loans that came out now, I don’t even know if 20 per cent of qualified people would apply. The rules are too stringent, too difficult.
You and your parents must not earn less than N500,000 a year, which means only very few people would have the opportunity to apply. That is the minimum wage parents of those that would qualify for that must earn. Now, there is also the issue of guarantors set as a rule for obtaining loans. Are the people going to get guarantors based on the rules set for obtaining such loans? The guarantor should be a lawyer with 10 years of experience which is difficult. So they must make such rules less stringent. Anyway, they should review the conditions, I think the government should work on scholarship programmes which I think are better than what we have now.

You are a key member of the PDP. What is the state of the party that is pursuing the case in respect of the last presidential election in court? Do you have hope that the case will be won by your candidate at the end of the day because people are saying that such could be difficult as there had been no precedence anywhere?

I was at a National Working Committee meeting of the party in Abuja on Tuesday, June 20th. Our party believes that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar won that election, the presidential election. Why INEC quickly announced the results before all the results came in is known only to INEC. But whether we would get justice in court, I don’t think so. Do you know why?

Why?

Looking at precedents, Akpabio went against the condition of INEC because he had a case of double nomination. He ran for Senate, and he ran for presidential seat at the same time and yet, INEC gave him the Senate ticket. The same thing happened with Lawan, the last Senate president. He too had a case of double nomination. Somebody had gone for the seat and won, now they took it from him. The same thing happened in Akpabio’s case. When you see the court giving such judgment, how can you hope that Atiku will get justice? That is why I pray to God that the court should do the right thing but I’m not hopeful, I don’t believe in these courts.

But I think you are right that it is not only in Nigeria but anywhere in the world where you have sworn in the president. The president has been given the highest honour of GCFR, the president has appointed Service Chiefs, the president is making appointments everywhere, he is doing his job, and he is already going abroad to represent the country, how are you going to remove him now? I think it’s too late, so that’s what I think.

Our court case has convinced us that Atiku Abubakar won that election based on the case we have in court, but will the court listen to us? So that’s the issue. If they had not sworn in the president and we are waiting for the final judgment, that could make sense. To me, swearing in the president before the end of the tribunal is saying that forget about it, it’s all over, go home, don’t worry again. That’s why I think we cannot get justice in court.

It has never happened in the case of the president, maybe it could happen. The only reason why I am so doubtful is that this particular judiciary, the Supreme Court, I have seen their judgements and based on that, I don’t think they would go as far as to remove the president because there are so many tentacles involved in this presidency. He is filling about 2000 jobs, making appointments here and there, I doubt it. Well, let us see, there is always a first time and miracles do happen.