(COVER) DICKSON RETURNS TO THE TRENCHES

The stage is set for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct the Bayelsa West and Bayelsa Central Senatorial districts by-election on October 31.

The two seats had become vacant following the Supreme Court verdict on February 13 which sacked Chief David Lyon of the All Progressive Congress (APC) as governor -elect and ordered INEC to declare the candidate with the second highest vote as governor. Consequently Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate, Senator Douye Diri and his running mate, Senator Lawrence Ewhrudajkpo of Bayelsa Central and Bayelsa West respectively were inaugurated as governor and deputy- governor by the Chief Judge of Bayelsa State, Justice Kate Abiri .

Even long before INEC announced plans to conduct the bye-election, political interests within the PDP and the APC have been seeking consultations on fielding the best candidates for the elections. To be sure while PDP remains the dominant party in Bayelsa State, the political incursion of the APC in the 2019 National Assembly election and later in the November 16 governorship is an indication that the opposition party in the state remains the greatest challenge to the dominance of the PDP.

Even at that, political pundits insist that the genuineness of that APC incursion remains questionable to this day, as the PDP is said to have lost ground, not due to any loss of favour before the  electorate, but more because of the supremacy of gun power brought to bear by the conniving federal might. But that is one claim the APC is not too comfortable with.
Now, with the conclusion of the party primaries, candidates have emerged from the various political parties with those of the PDP and APC standing out as favourites.

For Bayelsa West, former governor Henry Seriake Dickson of the PDP and former deputy- governor and former speaker, Peremobowei Ebebi of the APC are in for a gruelling race. In Bayelsa Central, former State Chairman of the PDP, Mr. Moses Cleopas and Mr. Abel Ebifemowei, a cousin to late Bayelsa governor, Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, is flying APC’s flag.
For ardent observers of politics in the state, especially the two senatorial districts, a number of factors aside the enthusiasm of the electorate would determine who goes to the Red Chambers to represent the two senatorial districts. And of the two elections, the one that has generated more wider interest is that of Bayelsa West considering the personalities of the two main candidates.

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Track record
One of the factors that would determine the winner of the senatorial bye- election, especially in Bayelsa West, is track record. For most political analysts, Dickson towers head and shoulder above all his political opponents and in particular, his perceived main challenger, Ebebi, in terms of track record.

While Ebebi has been a state lawmaker, speaker of the House of Assembly and also deputy- governor, his track record in political office cannot, in any way, be equal to Dickson’s. According to political pundits, Dickson who has been a Commissioner of Justice and Attorney- General later became a member representing Sagbama/ Ekeremor Federal Constituency for five years before serving as governor for eight years – a periodduring which he basically transformed Bayelsa and redefined the infrastructural development narrative of the once one-street state.

That Bayelsa is today the least indebted South South State and ranks far above the states created around the same time is a testimony to Dickson’s astute leadership and financial discipline.
These robust political credentials coupled with his involvement in the Ijaw struggle, in the views of Ijaw leaders, gives Dickson an edge over Ebebi and other candidates the race to represent the Ijaw nation in the Senate.
Former leaders of the Ijaw Youth Council, under the aegis of Ijaw Patriots, in a communiqué on their stand on the senatorial election ranked Dickson above all other candidates. The communiqué signed by all past presidents of the Ijaw Youth Council maintained that a politician with vast political network and pedigree should be sent to the Senate.
The group which zeroed in on Dickson said his persistent support of the call for restructuring makes him the perfect choice to speak for the Ijaw nation in the state.
“It is hereby resolved that all patriotic sons and daughters of Ijaw Nation should persuade and support His Excellency, Hon. H.S Dickson who has been a pillar of support to all Ijaw people irrespective of our artificial boundaries.
“And that this decision is unbiased and springs from the above expectations and his overwhelming performance as a former member of the House of Representatives for five years and a Governor who served our people for eight years which has given him the much needed requisite experience.
“That as a member representing the good people of Sagbama/Ekeremor federal constituency, His Excellency Hon H.S Dickson was a voice that was heard conspicuously on matters affecting our people. His deep legal and political knowledge was brought to bear and saw him cause major positive changes to his Federal constituency.”

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It continued, “That as Governor of Bayelsa State, he ran a government which saw inclusion of our brothers from Ondo, Delta, Rivers and Akwa Ibom States in governance without any segregation. That this exemplary leadership demonstrates his passion and core leadership values that shows he is and still a Patriot to our noble cause as a people.
“That it is on record that as a Governor, he became the leading voice in the call for restructuring of the Nigeria State, true federalism and the devolution of power to the component units for a greater people oriented governance. This role made respected senior citizens of our country rally around him as a leader of trust for this national progressive cause.”
Foremost Ijaw leader Chief Edwin Clark, who has also thrown his weight behind Dickson’s candidature, declared that the former governor is the most qualified among the candidates of Bayelsa West jostling to go to the Senate.
Hear him “The Ijaw nation today, more than ever before, needs people with strong character, to run for the Senate, to tackle the lingering issues, and the interest of the Ijaw nation, the Niger Delta; such as Restructuring, True Federalism, Resource Control, and other pertinent matters in the defense of the Ijaw interest, the South-South and indeed the country.
“I make bold to declare that His Excellency, Hon. Henry Seriake Dickson, the immediate past Governor of Bayelsa State, has displayed the quintessential Ijaw virtues of honour, courage and integrity, and has never succumbed to intimidation. I believe that he would advance our cause and join other compatriots to work for a better and greater Nigeria.
“He is well versed on issues of Restructuring, True Federalism, Devolution of Power and Resource Control. He has the right language to deploy, the charisma, the right commitment and determination to achieving these objective.”
He stated further “As a former member of the House of Representatives, he has a hands-on experience on legislative procedures and workings, the leadership acumen to weather through murky waters of parliamentary democracy and gymnastics. Governor Dickson has been a leading voice in the call for restructuring of this country. He makes no pretention about it.
“As the fourth largest ethnic nationality in Nigeria, we stand to gain more by working together than by singing discordant tunes. We must, therefore, settle for the best to represent our interest at the national level.”

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It is believed that Ebebi who is grounded politically in his own right would face an uphill task to overcome Dickson in terms of legislative experience and political network that comes handy in the Red Chambers. Unfortunately, Ebebi’s case is not made any better by his perceived in consistencies, especially ahead of last November’s governorship election in the state. He kept oscillating indecisively betwen the PDP and APC. He finally dumped PDP to join APC in a battle his political opponents insist was worn by the higher bidder, and not necessarily a triumph of political conviction. However, it is left to see how he would fare in a senatorial zone where the people and their leading lights are determined to deliver Dickson as a consensus choice.
In Bayelsa Central, Cleopas and Ebifemowei would go head to head as both are in the same boat as they both do not have legislative experience.

Zoning formula
There is an unwritten zoning formula over the national assembly seats in Bayelsa West. The senatorial district made up of two local government areas- Sagbama and Ekeremor has always rotated the national assembly seats between them since 1999. When Sagbama produces the Senator, Ekeremor would produce the House of Representatives member. An attempt by Heineken Lokpobiri to go another term after eight years was strongly resisted in 2015 and the leaders of the senatorial district held a crucial meeting to reaffirm the zoning arrangement.
Now with Ekeremor occupying the House of Representatives seat in the person of Hon. Fred Agbedi, the tide is in favour of Sagbama, where Dickson hails from, to produce the Senator. Political leaders of Bayelsa West under the aegis of Bayelsa West All Political Parties Summit, to avoid bad blood in the senatorial district gathered in Sagbama to reaffirm the zoning arrangement between Sagbama and Ekeremor.
“The communiqué issued after the meeting reads in part: “The standing zoning arrangement for the positions of Senate and the House of Representatives between Sagbama and Ekeremor is hereby affirmed.
“That all political parties are herewith resolved to field only candidates from Sagbama Local Government Area for the position of Senate in the forthcoming senatorial bye-election.
“The subsisting zoning arrangement should be duly respected by all political gladiators from Sagbama and Ekeremor Local Government Areas.
“The winner of the Senatorial bye-election from Sagbama Local Government Local Government Area shall only serve out the subsisting tenure that would lapse in June 2023 and no more.”
But supporters of Ebebi have insisted that the zoning formula is not binding on all the political parties as it was an internal arrangement within the PDP. They argued that after completing his eight year tenure as governor it was unfair that Sagbama was given the opportunity produce the deputy- governor who abandoned the Senate seat.
These arguments have been punctured by proponents of zoning. According to them there is no way Ekeremor would produce the Senator and the House of Representatives at the same time. Not only that, they argued that Ekeremor has also had its fair share of political offices producing three Speakers at different times and a deputy governor for five years.
The support and endorsement Dickson has received since his emergence as PDP candidate is a pointer that the people of the district hold the zoning formula sacrosanct and would not want to invite political chaos to the district.
Ebebi’s ambition has received a backlash as APC members from Ekeremor are defecting from the party in protest against the candidature of Ebebi .
The former Chairman of the Ogobiri Youth Association, Mr. Ekadi Tonbiri Desire led over 900 defectors of APC to the PDP to express their anger over the decision of Ebebi to contest.
According to him APC members decided to pull out of the party because of the violation of the existing agreement on zoning of political offices between Sagbama and Ekeremor.
The youth leader said that it was common knowledge that the two National Assembly positions in the Senatorial District are shared between Ekeremor and Sagbama.
He said that it was inconceivable and provocative for the APC to field a candidate for the forthcoming Senatorial contest from Ekeremor when an Ekeremor son, Chief Fred Agbedi, occupies the position of the House of Representatives.
He said that a fair and just system should not have allowed an Ekeremor son to contest the Senatorial election in a brazen violation of the existing accord on zoning of National Assembly seats in the area.
He described Ebebi’s emergence as a deliberate and unacceptable oppression of APC members  in Sagbama Local Government Area by the APC.
Also another group of defectors led by Mr Gowon Abiezi,  declared total support for Dickson stating that all men of good conscience in the district should defend the long standing agreement on power sharing between the councils making up the Senatorial District.
He said that they decided to defect to the PDP to support the Senatorial bid of the former Governor because of his exceptional leadership qualities and track record of performance as the first two terms as governor of the State.
Not left out are the councillors of the 12 wards in Ekeremor Local Government Area who have vowed not to support their kinsman Ebebi in his quest to go to the Senate.
The deputy leader of the legislative House, who represents Ekeremor Ward 6, Mr Pimo Sylvester, said all the councillors from the local government area decided to oppose any candidate from Ekeremor in defence of the agreement power sharing between the people of the two councils.
He said that the agreement to share the Senate seat and that of the House of Rep between Sagbama and Ekeremor for a period of eight was beyond any political party to violate.
“We just had a meeting with the former Governor, Chief Henry Seriake Dickson, on his senatorial ambition. The point to note is that in this District, there is a long standing agreement on zoning of the National Assembly positions.
“This was an agreement by the people, and it goes beyond political parties. This unwritten power sharing arrangement is for a period of eight years. This is the tenure of Sagbama, not Ekeremor.
“We are standing behind our former Governor who is from Sagbama and we shall oppose any person coming from Ekeremor because it is unjust and unfair. We want Chief Dickson to go the Senate to speak for the Ijaw nation. We believe in him, and fairness is on his side in this matter”
For Bayelsa Central, Cleopas and Ebifemowei would again go head to head as both are from Southern Ijaw Local Government Area where the position from zoned to by the two political parties.

Popularity of candidate and party
The popularity of the candidates and their political parties would play a major part. In Bayelsa West, Dickson is not only popular, he is widely respected by political associates and foes alike. This, with the popularity of PDP in the area and the state, makes him the candidate to beat in the election. The PDP is well organised in the area with Dickson seen as the leader. The party’s foot soldiers that delivered the party in the 2012, 2015 and 2019 governorship election and the general elections of 2011, 2015 and 2019 are ready to deliver the party again given the credibility of Dickson as a marketable candidate.
In contrast, APC would struggle to have a cohesive force to tackle PDP in the state. Before now Lokpobiri used to be the leader of the party in the area. However, having fallen out with the party over the 2019 governorship primaries, his lukewarm attitude to the senatorial election and his tacit support for the zoning arrangement effectively means Ebebi’s candidacy has not received his blessing.

In Bayelsa Central, the APC candidate, Ebifemowei seems to have an edge over Cleopas in terms of popularity but PDP still remains the most popular party in the area.

As things stand, PDP remains the party to beat in the bye elections. It has alway being. The only thing that has ever changed that, albeit artificially, is the Federal ruling power’s penchant to militarize the election and rig the vote. Incidentally, there appears to be an increasing resolve on the part of the people to defend their votes as they keep a date with October 31.