Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Delta, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Sokoto, Kwara, Benue, Nasarawa, Kano are among the states to watch as Nigerians go to the polls on Saturday in the governorship and Houses of Assembly elections.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) said it is ready for the polls, even though many Nigerians are still wary of the preparedness of the electoral umpire going by the hitches that attended the February 23 presidential and National Assembly elections.
Alignment and re-alignment of forces by the various political parties have been going on since the results of the last elections were announced.
In Lagos, the battle is between Babajide Sanwo-Olu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, and Jimi Agbaje of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
Many forces are at play in the “Centre of Excellence”. There is the “O to ge” mantra, which was imported from Kwara State, where it has been effective in dislodging the Saraki political dynasty. It has now been imported into Lagos political lexicon by the opposition to dislodge APC leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu from his base.
Tinubu has straddled the Lagos political landscape since 1999, using the state as launch pad to make foray into other zones, including national politics.
APC is facing an onslaught by the PDP, which, after losing the presidential election has turned its focus on Lagos, a cash cow and the richest state in the country and fifth biggest economy in Africa. It was learnt that winning Lagos would not only serve to punish Tinubu, who was seen as the brain behind APC’s presidential victory, but may also help, along with Rivers State, to oil the machinery of the opposition party until 2023.
To make the dream a reality, Agbaje has been working on other ethnic groups, especially the Igbo in the state with a view to benefitting from their dislike for the APC, although, some have seen such move as playing dangerous tribal politics, which has already pitched the Yoruba and the Igbo against each other.
The PDP, it was learnt, has also been working on some disgruntled APC members, who are still dissatisfied with the party’s primary, which dumped Governor Akinwumi Ambode for Sanwo-Olu.
In Oyo State, Seyi Makinde of the PDP has struck a strong alliance with the governorship candidate of African Democratic Congress, ADC, Femi Lanlehin and the leader of Zenith Labour Party, ZLP, and former governor of the state, Rasheed Ladoja with a view to dislodging the APC and its candidate, Adebayo Adelabu.
But to minimize the impact of such an alliance, APC has also on its own entered into an alliance with another governor of the state, Adebayo Alao-Akala, who was the governorship candidate of the Action Democratic Party, ADC.
The Nigerian Xpress gathered that the result of the election in this state could go either way. PDP, according to investigation is strong in Ogbomoso, but Alao-Akala is the strongman in the area. Ibadan with 11 local governments has 62 percent of the votes in the state. This will be shared by the candidates, who are indigenes of Ibadan.
Oke Ogun, Ibarapa and Oyo are other areas of the state, where both parties are looking to share the diadem.
It was also learnt that APC has been able to woo its breakaway faction back to its fold, which led to about 24 former council chairmen returning to the party.
In Ogun State, the fight is between Governor Ibikunle Amosun and the APC establishment. Amosun is working to prevent the “takeover of the state by forces from Lagos.”
After winning his senatorial seat, The Nigerian Xpress learnt that Amosun has a herculean task to win the state for his stooge, Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied Peoples Movement, APM. Akinlade, from Ogun West is contesting against Dapo Abiodun of the APC from Ogun East and Buruji Kashamu, also from Ogun East.
Already, many old foes have joined forces ahead of the poll. Former governor of the state, Gbenga Daniel, only on Wednesday directed his supporters to vote for APC. Daniel is a member of the PDP and the Director General of Atiku Abubakar Campaign Organisation. Another faction of the PDP loyal to Oladipo Adebutu, who contested the governorship ticket with Kashamu has also pitched its tent with Amosun and APM.
Amosun is expected to win his Ogun Central for his candidate, with former Governor Olusegun Osoba getting some votes for APC. Abiodun and Kashamu will share the votes in Ogun East, while the two candidates, alongside the governorship candidate of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka share the votes from the West. Isiaka is also from the West.
In Kwara State, the PDP may find it difficult recovering from the shellacking it got during the presidential elections. Already, 35 political parties have queued behind the candidate of APC, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq for the governorship battle.
But, political pundits noted that Senate President, Bukola Saraki won’t go down without a fight, having lost his Senate seat.
He was reported to have mobilized his supporters in a last ditch to remain relevant politically.
In Rivers State, Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi and APC, after losing the right to present candidates in this election cycle, have decided to support the governorship candidate of African Action Congress, AAC, Biokpomabo Awara.
Amaechi, while addressing supporters of APC on Wednesday, said AAC fits into the quest of the APC to give Rivers people justice.
This adoption has once again raised the stake in the state, where political violence and thuggery have assumed a very dangerous dimension, with the killing of scores of people during the presidential and National Assembly elections.
Although PDP has the upper hand in Akwa Ibom State during the last elections, former governor of the state, Godswill Akpabio has promised to sack Governor Udom Emmanuel of the PDP.
Akpabio personally picked the governor as his successor. But the two have fallen out. Akpabio lost his bid to return to the senate. That makes the governorship election a battle royale.
Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State returned to the PDP at the height of the herdsmen crisis in his state. He defected to the APC in 2014 when PDP denied him the ticket. He won. He is contesting for his second term in office but has Emmanuel Jime of the APC to contend with.
The result of the presidential and National Assembly election in the state was a surprise. Political observers had expected a landslide victory for the PDP in view of the high number of deaths recorded as a result of attacks by herdsmen. But surprisingly, PDP won the state with only 12,149 votes.
The major albatross of the PDP in the state is the allegation of non-performance leveled against the incumbent governor. Also, former governor George Akume, who lost his senatorial seat may be out to prove a point against the governor.
The passage of the anti-open grazing law in December 2017 has also set the state on a collision course with Abuja and as such, federal might could be employed tomorrow to ensure that Ortom does not return as the state’s helmsman.
President Buhari won Nasarawa State for the first time in February since his foray into partisan politics.
A former Managing Director of Dangote Sugar Company, Abdullahi Sule is the governorship candidate of the APC, while David Ombugadu, chairman, House of Representatives committee on HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis is flying the flag of the PDP in this battle of who succeeds Governor Tanko Al-Makura.
Sule is relatively new in the political battle field, but could rely on the popularity of the president to clinch the seat.
Delta, Sokoto and Kano are other states to watch out for. APC made a big inroad in Delta State during the presidential elections, while Governor Aminu Tambuwal is fighting the battle of his life to retain his seat in Sokoto State, which was won comprehensively by the APC in the February elections.
