APC’s incursion into South-east, South-south and 2023 permutations

 Razaq Bamidele

The recent events in Nigeria’s political arena appear to have the potential of charting a new course towards the 2023 presidential poll in the country. And the major events, to cut a long story short, are the series of political activities that are turning the table of hope against the ruling parties in some states and thereby making them opposition overnight.

To be precise, the dumping of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) by the governors of Ebonyi and Cross River States for the All Progressives Congress (APC), has given the latter historic incursion into the South-east and South-south. Traditionally, the two states, Ebonyi and Cross River, always belonged to the centre. Playing the role of opposition has never been in their lexicon, at least, since 1999 till 2015. Hence, the observation of some political pundits that playing the opposition just for only six years is already making them feel like fish out of water.

Recently, the Ebonyi State Governor, David Umahi, and his Cross River counterpart, Benedict Bengioushuye Ayade (simply Ben Ayade), both of the PDP packed their bags and baggage and said goodbye to their party and crossed over to the APC. With their cross-over movement, the ranking table has suffered automatic adjustment in favour of the ruling APC to the detriment of the PDP.

In the case of Ayade, not less than seven APC governors, led by the party’s interim chairman and governor of Yobe State, Mala Buni, stormed Cross River State to receive him into the progressives’ camp.  Accompanying him to Calabar, the capital city of Cross River State, were, Chairman, Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF), Dr. Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti); Hope Uzodima (Imo); Solomon Lalong (Plateau); Abubakar Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi) and Muhammed Abubakar (Jigawa).

Buni was quoted to have announced in Calabar that “I am here on behalf of the APC family to welcome His Excellency, the Executive Governor of Cross River State, to the APC.” He declared that Ayade had, therefore, become the leader of the party in the state by the virtue of his being the highest elected officer of the party in the state.

 However, Ayade has debunked the insinuation that his joining the ruling APC must have been to actualise his presidential ambition in 2023. Some political analysts believe him, reminding that even if the presidential slot is zoned to the South, the South-south has had the taste of it through former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan.

Giving reasons for his defection, Ayade explained that the good attitude, attributes and good works of President Muhammadu Buhari endeared him (Buhari) to his heart, adding that, “the realisation that Cross River, which has been emasculated economically, following the ceding of its oil wells years ago, needed to be in sync with the party at the centre.”

Explaining further, Ayade was quoted as saying: “Having seen and known the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and his commitment to this country, his nationalistic disposition and all the efforts he has made to bring Nigeria to where we are today, it is obvious that at this point, we need to join hands with him to build a Nigeria that we can be proud of.”

Ayade also stressed the need for all governors to recognise that it is not the party that matters, but the character, the honour and the commitment to the vision of this great country called Nigeria soliciting for cooperation with President Buhari “to ensure a team that would work towards building a prosperous country that the succession worries of 2023 would come without the fears and the worries the international community has for us.”

The governor said he was of the conviction that, “if every one of us as governor joins hands with Mr President, I think we can sit on the same dining table and fashion out a way to govern this country properly and move it forwards to the next level of an enviable standard.”

Corroborating Ayade’s submission was no other political personality than the Speaker of Cross River House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Eteng Jonah-Williams, who said the governor was not respected and honoured by the hierarchy of the PDP before his defection to the APC.

Jonah-Williams, who spoke in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), in Calabar, said Ayade’s defection from the PDP to the APC was timely, revealing that, out of the 25 House of Assembly members in the state, APC has 18, while the PDP, the ruling part, ironically has only seven (7).

“Before the governor took the decision, he consulted widely and the majority of the people told him that he needed to move to the APC,” the Speaker disclosed, adding that against that backdrop, in addition to his love to align the state with the happenings in the centre for the interest of the state, “there was a need for him to move.”

On the side of David Umahi of Ebonyi State, he said he had actually decamped to the APC since November 2020, saying his joining the APC was borne out of the “injustice meted to South-east by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)” which, he lamented includes denying the zone the party’s 2023 presidential ticket.

While denying the insinuation of his presidential ambition being attached to his decampment, Umahi rather believed that the ruling APC was better disposed to the interest of the five states in the South-east geopolitical region, insisting that he neither had presidential ambition nor was he promised by anyone or any party.

According to him, his exit was mainly to actualise the emergence of a Nigerian of Igbo ethnic stock as the nation’s next chief executive in 2023, asserting that, “having been successful as re-elected governor and businessman, I would return to the latter at the completion of my political voyage.”

He insisted he was not driven by selfish interests, but they need to protest against marginalisation, stating that the region has benefited more from the APC government and that the protest has started long ago, as expected from courageous people who mean well for their people.

He also insisted that the PDP as a party had been unfair to the zone despite having the late Vice President, Dr Alex Ekwueme, as one of its founding fathers.

 This stand was against the statement credited to the PDP Board of Trustees Chairman, Senator Walid Jubril, that the South-east never demanded the party’s presidential ticket.

However, the PDP leadership is not comfortable with the defection of their former governors, viewing their action as selfish and betrayal of trust. The party’s spokesman, Kola Ologbondiyan, has repeatedly condemned the development wondering how people who rode on the back of the party to power, could turn round to stab the same party in the back. To the PDP, Ayade and Umahi had bitten the fingers that fed them.

Irked by the decampment saga, the Rivers State Governor, Ezenwo Nyesom Wike, took a critical look at the whole scenario and declared that Umahi and Ayade were unfair to the PDP.

Recall that, before June 2020 when Governor Godwin Obaseki of Edo State decamped to the PDP, from the APC, APC had been controlling 20 states against the PDP’s 15, leaving only one state for the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). But with Obaseki’s defection, the PDP moved up to 16 with APC having 19 and APGA one.

When Obaseki decamped to the PDP, APC was jolted as its incursion into the oil-rich region was curtailed via Obaseki’s masterstroke. The APC’s headache was further aggravated when Obaseki went ahead to win the governorship poll and returned the oil-rich state to the PDP where it originally belonged.

But the situation on the ground now is that having recaptured Cross River, APC went ahead to add Ebonyi from the South-east. The case has now become lose one, win two for the ruling APC at the centre. And with the rumours making the rounds that about five or more states would soon move over to the APC, the hope of gaining another oil-rich state(s), is on the horizon.

 Political pundits are, however, of the conviction that APC can only heave a sigh of relief if only Ayade can repeat Obaseki’s magic by installing APC government in Cross River State after his exit because he would exhaust his two terms constitutionally permitted for all elected executives in 2023.

 Before the recent defection by the two governors to the ruling APC, APC had 19 states under its control, while the PDP has 16 with the APGA, having only one (1) as follows:

Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, kaduna, kebbi, Kogi, Osun, Ogun, Lagos, Ekiti, Imo, Katsina, Niger, Ondo, Nasarawa, Plateau, and Kwara.

 Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Akwa-Ibom, Cross-Rivers, Rivers, Bayelsa, Zamfara, Edo, Adamawa, Sokoto, Taraba, Benue, Bauchi, Oyo, Delta.

Anambra.

However, with the defection of Ayade and Umahi of Cross River and Ebonyi States to the APC, the chart has changed to APC 21, PDP 14 while the APGA still retains its Anambra state.

 Here is the new chart at a glance:

Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, Kaduna, Kebbi, Kogi, Osun, Ogun, Lagos, Ekiti, Imo, Katsina, Niger, Ondo, Nasarawa, Plateau, Kwara, Cross-River and Eboyi.

PDP States:

Abia, Enugu, Akwa-Ibom, Rivers, Bayelsa, Zamfara, Edo, Adamawa, Sokoto, Taraba, Benue, Bauchi, Oyo and Delta.

APGA state

 Anambra.

Before 2023, there are three other states where governorship polls would be held. The states are Anambra State (2021) where the APGA currently holds sway; EKiti and Osun States (2022). The two states, Ekiti and Osun are currently under the control of the APC.

If the PDP wins the three States, which is a herculean task, it would move up to 17 states while the APC would come down to 18 states. The Anambra poll later this year would be a litmus test for the APGA, as the two strong contenders (APC, PDP), are not leaving any electoral stone unturned in their quest to ‘capture’ the state. More interestingly, the governor, Willy Obiano, will exit having completed his second term in office.

The Osun battle would be tough, going by what transpired in 2018 between the two contenders. The PDP would want to prove that the 2018 performance was not just a fluke. And on the other hand, the APC would want to assert its authority on the ownership of the state of the Living Spring. Losing it to the PDP would have a question mark on the 2018 declaration of ‘inconclusiveness’ by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), before APC eventually won in a manner that the opposition described as daylight robbery.

 The Chairman, Osun State Chapter of the PDP, Hon. Bisi Sunday, in an interview with our reporter, expressed confidence that in 2022, the PDP would thrash the APC so much there wouldn’t be room for any kangaroo by-election. According to him, it would be a straight victory that would leave the APC gasping for breath.

Reacting to that, APC State Spokesman, Kunle Oyatomi, just waved aside the PDP’s supposed threat, saying part of the beauty of democracy is day dreaming.

Speaking in the same vein, the South-west Zonal secretary of the APC, Chief Ayo Afolabi, said the PDP is exercising its fundamental rights of freedom of expression as guaranteed by the Nigerian Constitution and saw “nothing wrong in anybody swimming in the ocean of political illusion”.

 According to him, the only state in the South-west, Oyo, currently under the control of the PDP “by default” would win with ease in 2023.

The pundits are of the view that, if things even remain like this till 2023, APC is likely to have an upper hand, going by the pattern of voting in the country. The states under the control of the APC majorly in the North can boast of heavy votes going by past experiences.

It is on record that states like Kano, Kaduna, Kebbi always post an average of two million votes each against some southern states some of which could not muster beyond a million or below votes.