…Warn against complacency
Jide Okeowo
Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT have revealed that those living warmer places appear to have a comparative advantage to slow the transmission of coronavirus infections.
The researchers found that most coronavirus transmissions had occurred in regions with low temperatures, between 37.4 and 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit (or 3 and 17 degrees Celsius).
While countries with equatorial climates and those in the Southern Hemisphere, currently in the middle of summer, have reported coronavirus cases, regions with average temperatures above 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit (or 18 degrees Celsius) account for fewer than 6 percent of global cases so far.
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“Wherever the temperatures were colder, the number of cases started increasing quickly. You see this in Europe, even though the health care there is among the world’s best” said Qasim Bukhari, a computational scientist at M.I.T. who is a co-author of the study.
They, however, warn that the possible correlation between coronaviruses cases and climate should not lead policymakers and the public to complacency.
“We still need to take strong precautions. Warmer temperatures may make this virus less effective, but the less effective transmission does not mean that there is no transmission. Warmer temperatures might make it harder for the coronavirus to survive in the air or on surfaces for long periods of time, but it could still be contagious for hours, if not days” he said.
However, Jarbas Barbosa, the assistant director at the Pan American Health Organization, the regional office of the World Health Organization is less optimistic and says it will take between 4 to 6 weeks for this to be ascertained.
“It will take another four to six weeks before health officials will have a clearer picture of how weather patterns shape the trajectory of the coronavirus. Even seasonal viruses like influenza and the viruses that cause the common cold don’t completely disappear during summer. They are still present at low levels in many people’s bodies and in other parts of the world, biding their time until conditions are suitable for infections to spread again” he said.