Tony Olutomiwa, Yenagoa
All is now set for the governorship election in Bayelsa State as scheduled by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.
It is a crucial election with consequence for both the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC, being the two major parties in contention at the election.
Preparations for the election are in top gear by both INEC and the security agencies. On its part, INEC has held series of sensitisation programmes to educate the people on their duties as voters and responsibility to play their expected roles in making the election peaceful. The electoral umpire has similarly engaged stakeholders on a peaceful conduct during the election, pledging a free, fair and credible election come Saturday.
INEC said it will go the extra mile to ensure that the sensitive materials are delivered early at the various poling centres, even with helicopters if need be.
However, the peculiar terrain in the state is still an issue regarding accessibility and early delivery of materials. The usual havoc of waylaying INEC officials by hoodlums is also an issue but the security agencies seem ready to prevent such incidents as pledged.
The Police authorities have also been well involved on the need for a peaceful election through engagement with the stakeholders. The Inspector General of Police, Mohammed Adamu, made it so important that he had to come to Yenagoa, the state capital, to call for cooperation and asked the people to be law abiding on election day.
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Over 30,000 policemen, including other security agents would be deployed for the exercise even as the Police Service Commission is deploying twenty five officials to monitor the election.
“We will get it right this time in the state,” Adamu assured.
Going into this election, the PDP and its candidate, Senator Douye Diri, have been campaigning on consolidating the legacy of the Seriake Dickson-led Restoration Government, while the APC has ‘change’ as its campaign mantra. In the estimation of the APC, the incumbent has not done enough relative to resources available.
But the government has repeatedly told Bayelsans that on the day of the election, they should be reminded of its contributions in advancing development in the state close to eight years particularly in the areas of education, health and solid infrastructure. It claimed that voting the opposition APC will take development back by 25 years.
Indeed the call for change by the APC is a basic democratic right and engagement but it is also true that change in democracy is not usually easy to the extent that the people share such aspiration and vote accordingly.
So will the change tendency happen in this election? That’s the jig saw poser as both the PDP and APC head to the polls Saturday.
Without doubt, PDP remains a strong party with structures across the state, which observers believe APC lacks but this does not diminish the popularity of its candidate, Chief David Lyon.
However, there are those who think Lyon does not have the astuteness and intellectual finesse unlike Douye Diri, which, again, is not a factor in choosing a leader in a democracy if the people so wish. But in an enlightened environment, it matters especially as it relates to the job of a governor.
Yet, analysts are of the opinion that in spite of APC’s resurgence in the state, winning would be a factor of the people actually voting on the election day. For instance, does the APC candidate enjoy such widespread support across the state, having party structures and followers to ensure he gets the necessary votes like the PDP candidate? Besides, there is a school of thought that the average Bayelsan thinks and acts correspondingly to the belief that PDP is Ijaw party and why such adroit attachment to it no matter other persuasions. This proclivity is playing out in this election.
Again, it is instructive that though the out-going governor, Seriake Dickson, is not on the ballot, he is reckoned to be in charge of a massive mobilisation across the state with so many IOUs from his supporters in his two terms in office. Close watchers of the polity believe Dickson is a master strategist whose influence on the political terrain in the state could spring some jolt at the end of the day.
Other variables shaping this election in both major parties are those of internal contradictions; some partly on irreconcilable differences leading to defections and others on legal suits challenging the respective primary elections.
On the latter, the suit by former Minister of State for Agriculture, Heineken Lokpobiri, who was also a former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, comes so striking with serious implication for the outcome of the election.
The judgement of a federal court nullifying the entire primary process of the APC will likely have a demoralizing effect on the party’s supporters who may switch to the PDP or remain aloof.
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Delivering judgement on the suit filed by Lokpobiri challenging the governorship primaries of the APC, Justice Jane Inyang ruled that the primaries was conducted arbitrarily outside the rules of the party. She noted that since the process was conducted in violation of the party’s constitution and guidelines of the governorship primaries, none of the aspirants should be featured as the party’s candidate.
She gave an order restraining the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, from fielding David Lyon as the party’s candidate for the election.
Inyang further noted that according to the APC guidelines for the conduct of the 2019 governorship primaries, the results were expected to be declared by the returning officer, Governor Mai Kala Buni of Yobe State and not Emmanuel Ochega, Secretary of the Election Committee.
She added that the APC also violated its own rules in the composition of the election panel when it constituted an 11-member committee instead of seven.
Accordingly, Inyang ruled that: “It has been established by judicial authorities and several judgements that political parties are bound by their own rules, the committee that conducted the primary threw caution to the winds and it is my ruling that the primaries stands nullified.
“The result announced by Senator Emmanuel Ochega is not valid as he is not the returning officer for the election, and I make an order restraining INEC from recognizing any of the aspirants that participated in the said primaries.”
Nonetheless, APC and its members are participating in the election, following the directive of APC leader in the state and Minister of Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva, that an Appeal Court in Abuja had granted the party a stay of execution on the judgement of the Federal High Court.
“That means we are fully as a party in the position of contesting this election,” Sylva said at a news conference.
Now, looking at the situation in Zamfara State and elsewhere, where such incidents occurred regarding poor management of party primaries by not adhering to the lawful process, what’s the future for APC and continued participation in the election?
This is a new dimension to the contest since INEC in its reaction to the judgement said it will comply with the court’s ruling.
Interestingly, the Lokpobiri saga and the judgement that followed came few days after APC deputy governorship candidate in the state, Biobarakuma Degi-Eremienyo, a serving senator, was disqualified by a Federal High Court in Abuja on the grounds that he provided conflicting information in his documents submitted to INEC. Although the APC had appealed the judgment, the emerging scenario with particular reference to the Lokpobiri episode paints a troubled future for APC ahead and after the election.
In the PDP, the suit by party chieftain, Timi Alaibe, is still being awaited for judgement but this will likely be after the polls.
Alaibe, a governorship aspirant on the platform of the PDP, had gone to court to challenge the PDP primary process which, he claimed, shut him out especially at the adhoc level.
The bloody attack in Nembe two days to the election also raises concern that violence may blight the election on Saturday. It is noted that violence had been a recurring decimal in Bayelsa election and of course its consequence on the sanctity of the electoral process. About eight persons were said to have been the casualties of the Nembe attacks where PDP faithful who went to campaign there were allegedly attacked by hoodlums with guns. Many people are still in hospitals receiving treatment for various degrees of injuries aside those who lost their lives. This is a major issue the security agencies must address in order to have a peaceful election marked by credibility.
So, a combination of factors will determine the outcome of the election: from the readiness of INEC and security agencies to effectively tackle the scourge of recurring violence, rigging, vote buying and general cooperation of the voters by being orderly in their approach to the election.
It is important, too, that INEC ensures early delivery of materials as promised to make the process run on time and end peacefully. The electoral umpire must also endeavour to be above board by conducting a free and fair election. This is the first condition for peace pre and post election.
And the winner? That will be decided by the people. But the dynamics now heralding the election gives the PDP some advantage. What’s important, however, is for the political actors and the institutions to comply with the basic tenets of the electoral process for a free, fair, transparent and credible election.
Indeed, the people are the custodians of democracy who should be allowed to make their choice and decide the next governor in Bayelsa State.