The Tinubu Factor
Akani Alaka x-rays factors responsible for the poor outing of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as well as the overwhelming victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in last Saturday’s governorship election.
Recriminations among members of the PDP over their party’s disgraceful outing at last Saturday’s Ekiti governorship election started far before the declaration of the candidate of the APC, Biodun Oyebanji as the winner of the poll early Sunday morning.
As results were trickling in, members of the party who were concerned that Bisi Kolawole, the candidate of the PDP was being beaten black and blue by his APC opponent had started a diagnosis of whom or what was responsible for the unexpected outing.
Some had blamed the Iyorcha Ayu-led National Working Committee of the PDP as well as the presidential candidate of the party, former vice president Atiku Abubakar for the massive loss.
They accused Ayu and Atiku of abandoning the PDP candidate and not giving him enough support during the campaign.
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The party members contrasted the situation with that of APC whose presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu and the Chairman of the party, Adamu Abdullahi were not only in Ekiti for a grand campaign about four days before the election but also mobilized many governors to the state to boost their party’s effort in the election.
Fayose Puts PDP’s Neck On Guillotine
However, other party members wasted no time in blaming former Ekiti governor, Ayo Fayose who anointed Kolawole as the PDP candidate for the election.
They noted that in his bid to anoint Kolawole, Fayose had alienated the national leadership of the party as well as the PDP leader in the South-west, Governor Seyi Makinde who were not in support of his preferred candidate.
The former governor had also gone on to mismanage the primary election for the governorship candidate, manipulating it to the advantage of Kolawole.
In a viral video shot during the primary, delegates were seen showing their ballot papers to the former governor who was sitting like an overseer at the event after they had thumb-printed them.
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This was to confirm that they have voted for Fayose’s preferred candidate. Therefore, it was not a surprise that many aspirants, including former governor Segun Oni and Senator Biodun Olujimi withdrew from the highly compromised primary.
Oni, a former governor of Ekiti State later decamped to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and demonstrated his political pedigree by successfully pushing the PDP to the third position in the governorship election.
Worst still, Fayose, according to his critics, failed to give Kolawole the needed push after imposing him as the PDP candidate.
Rather, the former governor had embarked on a frolic in the guise of contesting for the presidential ticket of the PDP. He scored zero votes at the presidential primary despite the presence of delegates from Ekiti who were his loyalists at the special convention.
Oyebanji’s Grand Victory
His shoddy handling of the campaign was reflected in the election result in which the APC candidate won in 15 of the 16 local government areas of the state.
The PDP candidate was able to win his council area, Efon Alaye, for the PDP, garnering 6,303 votes to Oyebanji’s 4,012 votes.
But Fayose could not deliver his local government Irepodun/Ifelodun for PDP. The APC candidate scored 13,125 votes in Irepodun/Ifelodun to defeat Kolawole who polled 4,712.
Perhaps, the only consolation for Fayose may be the fact that in his grand victory, Oyebanji also defeated Oni in his Ido-Osi Local Government where he polled 10,321 votes. In contrast, Oni was only able to garner 9,489 votes.
The APC governorship candidate scored a total of 187,057 votes to be declared the governor-elect of Ekiti State. Oni got 82,211 to come second while Kolawole came third with 67,457 votes.
Thus, Oyebanji was declared Ekiti governor-elect early Sunday morning by the Returning Officer for the election, Prof. Oyebode Adebowale.
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“That Biodun Oyebanji, the candidate APC, having certified the requirements of the law, is hereby declared winner and elected,” the University of Ibadan Vice Chancellor declared. Oyebanji had campaigned on being the ‘home boy’ touting himself as the first person who had lived in Ekiti for all his childhood and adulthood years.
He had also been part of different governments in Ekiti over the years. His familiarity with the terrain and popularity among his people were factors that analysts said contributed to his victory.
Also, APC’s victory is historic because it is the first time that the people of the state are electing the same party for two consecutive terms.
The declaration led to instant rejoicing among APC members and supporters in Ado Ekiti, the state capital.
Rescuing Ekiti PDP From Fayose
PDP members will certainly spend the coming weeks ruing what could have been if Oni had not been forced out of the party by Fayose and had been on the ballot instead of Kolawole as the candidate of the party.
Although if combined, the votes of the SDP and PDP will still fall far below that of Oyebanji.
the APC candidate.
The party leaders will also be concerned about what measures to take to stop the repeat of the Ekiti scenario in the Osun governorship election which is barely a month away and where the outcome of the primary that produced the party’s candidate was also disputed.
Also in contemplation will be the future of Fayose as the leader of APC in Ekiti. The former governor has led the party to successive losses in the state since he left power and struggled to keep the state chapter of PDP under his tight control.
While his tight control of the party structure has not yielded electoral fortunes for the party, Fayose appeared not to let go for ego reasons. As Fayose depreciates in electoral value, the Ayu-led leadership of the PDP will have to devise a way of rescuing the party from his firm grip.
APC Targets Osun, 2023 Elections
However, as APC members rejoice over their victory in Ekiti, they have also been analysing the implications for the 2023 election.
For President Muhammadu Buhari, the victory of Oyebanji is an “indication of the confidence of Nigerians in the ability of APC to deliver quality governance to all.”
The president who said this in his congratulatory letter to Oyebanji on Sunday also asked APC members to see the outcome of the election as a good omen for the 2023 general elections.
The president, therefore, urged APC members to work assiduously to ensure the party’s victory in next month’s governorship election in continuation of the trend. Also, while congratulating Oyebanji, Festus Keyamo, the Minister of Labour (State) said the party must gird up its loins to repeat the feat in the Osun governorship election. “While this buoys our spirits in APC and I congratulate our own Biodun Oyebanji on this momentous feat, we must keep our feet firmly on the ground as there is a greater work ahead to win the Osun governorship election and the 2023 presidential elections,” Keyamo said.
Tinubu Effect
Some members of the party had attributed the large turnout of voters to the influence of Tinubu who was in Ekiti to campaign for the party.
The former Lagos governor had also intervened to settle the crisis over the party’s primary which had pitted some chieftains of Ekiti APC against the Kayode Fayemi-led government.
Oyebanji was chief of staff to Fayemi and some members of the party had accused the governor of unfairly tilting the primary in his favour. Will the presence of Tinubu on the presidential ballot galvanise a large turnout of the electorate in the South-west and vote for the party in the region in 2023?
Commendations/Worries Over Vote-Buying
Beyond the political permutations, the Ekiti election was hailed for the large turnout of voters and general peaceful conduct. Voters were already in queues, waiting for electoral officers as early as 7 a.m.
Also, counting and sorting of votes commenced after voting ended around 2.30 p.m in most areas. This paved the way for the early announcement of the election result.
However, an ugly feature of the election was allegations and counter-allegations of vote-buying in many polling centres.
There were claims that between N5,000, N7,000 and N10,000, were shared with those willing to sell their votes by some party loyalists.
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) confirmed that the arrest of some people alleged to be involved in vote-buying during the election. The suspects were said to have been caught with monies allegedly used to induce voters, an act the EFCC officials said was carried out surreptitiously.
The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room also confirmed that voters were monetarily induced between N4,500 and N10,000 at the governorship election.
The Convener of the coalition of CSOs, Ene Obi, in the interim statement of the group made available to journalists in Abuja on Saturday said that the Situation Room received reports of widespread vote-buying by political party agents across the 16 Local Government Areas of the State.
“In many instances, voters were induced with money ranging from N4,500 to N10,000 by asking them to flag completed ballot papers as proof of voting in a specified manner in what they term ‘See and Buy’.
“Situation Room strongly condemned this blatant violation of the electoral law.”
But Obi said the election had been generally peaceful, with voters civilly conducting themselves in most of the polling units.
Other positives about the election include the early arrival of Poll officials and election materials in 93 per cent of the polling units.
She added that the polls commenced before 9:00 am in at least 88 per cent of the locations, an improvement on both the Anambra State Governorship Election 2021 and FCT Area Councils Elections 2022.
Obi added that the Bi-Modal Verification Accreditation System (BVAS) was functional in at least 76 per cent of the voting locations.