Akani Alaka writes on the momentum around the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in relation to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ahead of the 2023 election.
Given the momentum his candidacy is generating, the dyed-in-the-wool politicians in the main opposition PDP and the ruling APC would certainly wish Peter Obi is not in the 2023 presidential race. But Obi is not just in the presidential race, his ambition has gathered so much momentum and buy-in from a large segment of Nigerians that he is now being considered a potential successor to President Muhammadu Buhari. If his presidential bid became a reality, Peter Obi, with his Labour Party would have succeeded in doing what the now ruling APC did in 2015 when it ended PDP’s dream of ruling Nigeria continuously for 60 years just after 16 years.
The APC achieved that feat through a coalition of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria led by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is now the party’s presidential candidate, Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change, the All Nigeria Peoples Party, and a section of the All Progressives Grand Alliance. Added to the mix of the strong potent that propelled APC were some rebellious governors and chieftains of PDP, including Atiku Abubakar, now the 2023 presidential candidate of PDP.
But Buhari did not also come to the presidential contest empty-handed. He came with his immense popularity in the Northern part of the country which earned him over 10 million votes in two previous presidential contests he was involved in.
Failed Alliance
However, Obi, who dumped the PDP when it was clear to him that he has zero chance of getting the party’s ticket will not be going into the 2023 contest with such a strong coalition that could have given his ambition a strong footing in every part of the country. And it was also not for want of trying. The former Anambra State governor had tried to ally his LP with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria’s Peoples Party, NNPP.
Like Obi, Kwankwaso, had also joined the NNPP when he left the PDP. Both men have also made the two political parties gain unprecedented popularity after they decided to pursue their 2023 presidential ambition on their platforms.
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Kwankwaso’s defection especially made NNPP a popular platform in the Northern party of the country with politicians who lost out in the battle for tickets of APC and PDP joining the party in continuation of the pursuit of their ambitions.
On the other hand, supporters of Obi who had backed him when he was bidding for the presidential ticket of PDP had followed him to LP.
Many analysts believe that would have given Obi’s presidential ambition not only a strong footing in the Northern part of the country but effectively made the 2023 presidential candidate a three-horse race with the emergence of a third force.
However, the alliance failed after Kwankwaso not only dismissed the possibility of his being a running mate to Obi, who, he said, was younger than him but claimed that the people in the Northern part of the country will not vote for an Igbo man.
He added that the LP is a sectional party that cannot win a national election. “O’ yes it (LP) cannot win elections. The support is mainly in a particular zone. There is no even spread and the figures there cannot earn anybody presidential seat in this country,” Kwankwaso said in an interview on national television where he also insinuated that Obi’s ambition cannot fly in the Northern part of the country because it is being linked to agitations for secession in the South-east.
Obi-dients Movement
With the failure of the alliance, Obi had announced Abuja businessman and former lawmaker elected on the platform of CPC Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed as his running mate. But except for a couple of lawmakers elected on the platform of LP, Obi and Datti will not have the opportunity of well-oiled foot soldiers in form of governors, lawmakers, and other party chieftains to sell their ambition across the country. It is also doubtful if the LP itself has a presence across the 176,846 polling units across Nigeria.
But Obi’s forte so far has been the strong support he has among the youths, especially those active on social media where he enjoys a huge following.
Indeed, it was Obi’s supporters on social media who had also strongly opposed suggestions that the former Anambra governor should ditch the number one position for the running mate slot. For them, the billionaire businessman is a fresh of breath air and a departure from Tinubu and Atiku who, according to them represent corruption, misgovernance, and every ill that has held the country back from realising its potential.
Obi had over the years in many public events lamented the state of the country even as he narrated how he had tried to toe a different path from the wastage and theft of public funds associated with public officials in Nigeria. He had pointed out how he shunned investments in expensive wristwatches, shoes, and private jets among others as a public official.
He has also narrated his strides and achievements as the governor of Anambra State including leaving the state without debts but with huge savings in state coffers at the end of his tenure.
Thus, supporters of LP’s presidential candidate, who tagged themselves ‘Obi-dients’ have taken over the social media to propagate and sell Obi as a caring candidate with a reputation for frugality, accountability, and ability to deliver good governance which they said he demonstrated as the governor of Anambra State.
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The army of supporters, some of whom have adopted the picture of Obi or the logo of his party as their display pictures, are also fiercely defensive, always ready to deploy all their arsenals against any perceived slur or attempt to question the credentials of the LP candidate.
Just like it happened with the Afrobeat musician, Femi Kuti last week, Obi himself had a couple of times, had to apologise for the excesses of his supporters. Kuti had incurred the wrath of the ‘Obi-dient Movement’ when he said he was not ready to be obedient.
In reaction, the Obi-dient Movement had attacked him on social media, threatening to burn down his Afrika Shrine, accusing him of referring to them as Zombies. The Afrobeat musician, however, denied the claim while berating the movement for insulting him and members of his family. He reiterated that he was unhappy about issues in the country to support any particular presidential candidate for the 2023 presidential election.
Social media activist and former presidential aide, Reno Omokri, and columnist Sam Omatseye are among those who have had to cry out after being threatened by members of the Obi-dient Movement over views deemed unfavourable to the presidential quest of Obi.
But Obi had also accused supporters of the other party of embarking on a campaign of calumny against him while promising that he would make his campaign for the 2023 election issues-based.
Beyond Social Media
Beyond their aggressive online presence, the Obidients have also started organizing rallies and processions across the country in an obvious move to dispute claims that support for the ambition of the labour party’s presidential candidate is limited to the hype on social media. They believe that the recent registration of Continuous Voter Registration, CVR in which the youths registered massively was in support of the presidential ambition of Obi.
They have vowed to mobilize thousands of young Nigerians at no cost to the LP’s presidential candidate to ensure that he emerged victorious in the 2023 election. Indeed, their slogan was ‘we no dey give shishi’ meaning a departure from the money-influenced campaign and electoral processes and wastage of public funds of the past.
Indeed, the Obi-dients argue that Peter Obi decided to abandon his bid for the presidential ticket of PDP because he is not ready to bribe the delegates like the other candidates.
However, Obi is also attracting support from other political parties. Last week, Valentine Ozigbo, the PDP candidate in the 2021 Anambra State governorship election said he would support Peter Obi, for the 2023 general election.
He anchored his action on the need to join the train for the election of a “competent and visionary leader” capable of leading Nigeria into the future. Ozigbo said he belonged to the group of Nigerians who are no more comfortable with the status quo and are determined to set the country back on the path of progress.
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“There comes a defining moment in the life of any country when all people of good conscience must stand up to be counted. Those times offer no middle ground; you are either on the dark side or the side of the light,” Ozigbo said.
“For Nigeria, 2023 is such a moment. Nigerians will be divided into two classes – those who will work to entrench the forces that have destroyed Nigeria or those warriors of the light who will work to bring justice, equity, and peace to our beloved country. And next year, as we go to the polls to elect a new president, there will be no fences to sit on,” he stated.
Ozigbo, a former chief executive officer of Transcorp said the former Anambra governor has the needed qualities and capacities to transform the country and will be the best president Nigeria will ever have if elected. He added that the huge support for Obi in the South-east region, and the nation was because of the “revolutionary, inclusive, and inspiring leadership” he provided when he was at the helms in Anambra State.
Ozigbo added that Obi’s choice of running mate, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed has made the LP’s presidential ticket “unbeatable” and deserving of the support of Nigerians. “Pulled by the brilliance of the candidacy of Peter Obi and Yusuf Datti, inspired by the passion of the Nigerian youth, and driven by an undying love for Nigeria, I, Valentine Ozigbo, at this moment, formally join the Obi-dient Movement,” Ozigbo said.
The Appeal of Peter Obi
Analysts said Obi’s candidacy is also benefiting from the complaints of marginalization from the South-east part of the country where he is from. The Igbo people of the South-east had argued that as the only major ethnic group that has not produced the president for Nigeria since the country became independent in 1960, the two major political parties should yield their presidential ticket to them.
But the PDP and the APC had spurned the request and had instead given their ticket to Tinubu (South-west) and Atiku (North-east) respectively.
As a result, many APC and PDP members in the South-east like Ozigbo are abandoning their parties to embrace Obi. There is also the religious angle, with Obi, being a Christian and the two other major candidates being Muslim.
The embrace of the Muslim-Muslim ticket by the APC is also driving many, especially in the Southern part of the country, the North-central among others to the camp of the LP presidential candidate.
However, cynics said the former Anambra governor is not different from other politicians, citing his indictment in the leaked Pandora Papers which exposed the hidden wealth of the rich in 2021.
They also alleged that he failed to declare offshore accounts and assets held by family members and invested state funds while he was governor in a company he had dealings with.
Obi had either dismissed or defended himself against the allegations.
Jitters In PDP, APC
However, opponents of Obi in the PDP and the APC believed that he lacks the national appeal to win a presidential election. PDP members in and outside of the South-east are particularly fearful of the momentum being generated by Obi out of fear that he could hurt their plan to take over power from the APC in 2023.
The fear is that Obi may eat away from the votes usually garnered by the PDP in the South-east where PDP candidates have been winning elections since 1999. Also, there are fears that the people of the zone may also vote for the LP candidates for other positions, especially, in the poll for the National Assembly which is usually held simultaneously with the presidential poll.
This possibility has sent jitters down the spines of candidates of the other parties in the South-east for the national legislative elections. Outside of the South-east, there are also fears that the traditional voters of PDP in the South-west where the party has always put up a respectable performance may embrace the LP in 2023.
The reduction of votes going to the PDP may play to the advantage of the APC, according to analysts. In addition, Obi has also been going around to meet key leaders across all sectors in the country. He has been part of the events in most of the leading churches in Nigeria, just as he continues to be a guest of traditional rulers and even, governors elected on the platform of the two major political parties.
Some had said the visits are parts of efforts by Obi to build pan-Nigerian support for his ambition.
Not A Threat
But speaking during a recent interview, the presidential candidate of PDP said Obi stands very little chance of winning the presidential election or jeopardizing his own ambition. “I really don’t expect the Labour Party to take many votes from the PDP as people are speculating. They have no structure at all levels, with no governor, and lawmakers. It will take a miracle for Labour Party with no structure in the grassroots to win the election,” said Atiku.
He cited the recent performance of the Labour Party in the recent Osun State election to back up his claim. The former vice president also said most people in the Northern part of the country where the majority of the votes for the presidential election will come from are not on social media.
“They had said through the social media they have one million votes in Osun State but how many votes do they have in real life? In the northern part of the country, about 90 percent of people don’t have access to social media. Most of the electorate are not on social media,” he said.
100 Million Nigerians
However, the LP presidential candidate had always disputed such assertions with claims that all underprivileged Nigerians are his supporters. “I have said it before when people talk about structure, that my structure [is] the 100 million Nigerians living in poverty. That’s five million people unemployed. Those people who are finding it difficult to live. Nigerians are here today spending over 100 percent of their money on feeding, that is my structure. And above all, the most important structure is the Almighty God,” Obi said during his visit to Governor Samuel Ortom in Benue some weeks ago.
Also, former presidential spokesperson, Dr. Doyin Okupe, said those who think the LP candidate has no structure to win a presidential election will weep at the end of the poll.
Okupe, one of the major promoters of Obi’s presidential ambition said the LP candidate will work with youths and the network of the Nigeria Labour Congress and its affiliates to take the country back from those holding it by the jugular.
He added that LP has become the fastest-growing political party in Nigeria since Obi became a member of the party.
How Obi Will Win
Speaking on behalf of Obi recently in Abeokuta, Okupe affirmed the potential electorate reservoir of LP is more than three times the membership of the ruling APC and PDP put together. According to him, the PDP and the ruling APC have lost their political relevance and will be easily defeated in the 2023 election.
He added that the refusal of the PDP to zone its presidential ticket to the Southern part of the country will hurt the party in the election.
Okupe said the LP candidate will rely on Nigeria’s workforce, youths, and market women to beat both the APC and the PDP at the 2023 general elections.
“The PDP was a good platform, but it has expired. The APC was never a good platform, it is of no consequence. The two parties are out. These two parties have expired, and they have no relevance to the new things that Nigerians and the youths are looking for.
“The potential electorate reservoir of Labour Party is more than three times the membership of APC and PDP put together. NLC, TUC, NURTW, market women, professional bodies, and students are all part of the Labour Party.
“The NLC has a membership of about 5 million, the TUC has a membership of about 8 to 10 million, the number of students registered in the federal universities is about 2.5 million, those who are not in the federal universities are about 6.7 million, when you add all that together, you are looking at about 20 million reserved voters that have a direct affiliation with Labour Party,” Okupe said.
While cynics may say this is not more than building a castle in the air, what cannot be denied is that in Obi, the APC and the PDP may be facing their major challenge ever.