From Paul Omokuvie Bauchi
As the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) prepares to conduct rerun elections in five states in the country, Bauchi stands among states where the outcome will be a topic of discussion for generations to come.
The main actors in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are as usual perfecting plans to secure victory in the last lap of the governorship race.
While the APC candidate, Mohammed Abubakar is seeking to be reelected, his main challenger, Senator Bala Mohammed, will ensure that never happens.
Mohammed is being supported by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, and a coalition of several political parties. Mohammed also has the backing of powerful politicians, who are aggrieved with the outcome of the primary election conducted in the APC where they accused Abubakar of manipulating the process. While some defected other remained in the APC because of their love for President Muhammadu Buhari but vowed that they and their teeming supporters would vote against Abubakar.
On the other hand, Abubakar is believed to have the support of former governors Isa Yuguda and Adamu Mu’azu.
The governor also counts on the support of people of the northern part of the state known as the Katagum zone, which has been agitating for the governorship seat to be zoned to the area for decades. The zone produced a governor once in person of Tatari Ali in the Second Republic from 1979 to 1983. Since then the number one seat has always eluded them. Abubakar has gone into unwritten path with the people of Bauchi North.
READ ALSO: Building Collapse: Expert urges Nigerians to be cautious when seeking for homes
A support for Abubakar, therefore, will guarantee that the next governor emerges from the area as their son, Sule Katagum is currently the deputy Governor of the state and should naturally succeed Abubakar in 2023.
Abubakar also has the support of former Governors Isa Yuguda and Adamu Mu’ azu to retain the seat as the PDP candidate Senator Bala Mohammed is not seen as the right person for the seat.
Meanwhile, following the cancellation of the results for Tafawa Balewa earlier, a committee set up by INEC has visited Bauchi State and is currently investigating circumstances that led to the disruption of results for the local government, which led to the cancellation. Should the issue be resolved and the result of the contentious local government announced, the tension will reduce as the two candidates will now focus their energy on winning election in the polling units in the 15 local government areas affected.
As the supplementary election is being awaited, a lot is at stake for the PDP, APC and the electorate.
Abubakar’s chances appear slim as some notable APC politicians such as Dr Yakubu Lame, Hon Aminu Tukur and Captain Bala Jibril have not hidden the fact that they and their teeming supporters will not support Abubakar but will vote for PDP.
To make Abubakar’s case worse, he is often widely criticised for poor performance. The allegation that he is not from Bauchi State seemed to have united some electorate to vote him out. Indeed Speaker Dogara and the PDP candidate have stated during their campaigns that after they have defeated him (Abubakar), they would not waste time in sending him packing out of the state back to Kogi, his home state.
The governorship election results seemed to indicate that Abubakar’s chances of retaining the seat are indeed slim.
Results so far announced by INEC from 19 local governments in the state indicated that the two parties are neck and neck in the race for Ramat House.
The Returning Officer for Bauchi State Governorship election, Professor Mohammed Kyari, had declared the results of election inconclusive.
Kyari disclosed that from collated results from 19 out of 20 local government areas of the state, APC polled a total of 456,453, while the PDP polled a total of 469,512.
He said three reasons were responsible for declaring the results inconclusive.
Firstly, the slim margin of lead between the PDP and the APC, which is 4,059. Secondly, the number of cancelled votes is put at 45,212, which is higher than the margin of lead between the first, second candidates. And thirdly, the number of registered voters affected is put at 139,240.
Supplementary election would be conducted in 184 units in 15 local government areas of the state on Saturday March 23, including Tafawa Balewa Local Government Area, where results were cancelled.
Meanwhile, results by local government showed that the PDP clinched Bogoro, Dogara’s local government with 19, 667 votes while APC polled 7, 442. It also won Bauchi with 102,467 ahead of APC with 56663 votes. PDP also had a strong showing in Alkaleri, the local government of the PDP candidate, with 34, 625 votes against APC with 27, 238 votes. The PDP also defeated the APC in Misau, polling 19,928 compared to APC with 16, 282 votes. PDP also recorded victory with slim margin in Dambam, Zaki and Ganjuwa.
The ruling APC recorded massive victory over PDP in Toro with APC polling 57, 655 votes while PDP scored 31, 284 votes. APC also won in Dass, one of the local governments in Dogara’s constituency with 15,388 votes compared to PDP’s 12,411.
The current debate in the state is on who will trounce between APC and PDP at the end of the supplementary election.
READ ALSO: JUST IN: Gunmen kill Army Garrison Commander in Bauchi
Unofficial result being circulated in the social media of Governorship Election for Tafawa Balewa LGA, showed that the PDP scored 40,010, while the polled a total of APC 29,862.
The Collation Officer for Tafawa Balewa, Mrs. Dominion Anosike claimed that she was forced to announce the result at the collation centre in the local government under duress, while hoodlums tampered with the result sheets.
The Presiding Officer for the State, Professor Mohammed Kyari cancelled the results of Tafawa Balewa and ordered for supplementary election to be carried out.
Even so, there are claims by both parties as to who has control of Tafawa Balewa, the contentious local government area.
Dogara is not hiding the fact that Abubakar must not be given a second chance by the people of Bauchi and hence he is giving Bala Mohammed all the support to dislodge the incumbent governor.
Dogara has joined forces with some top politicians in the state including member-elect representing Bauchi Federal Constituency, Yakubu Shehu Abdullahi, popularly known as Wowo.
Abdullahi’s popularity in Bauchi Local Government Area was so strong that it swayed thousands of votes that enabled Mohammed of the PDP to defeat incumbent Governor Abubakar in Bauchi by a significant margin.
Should this feat be repeated in polling units where rerun will hold, Abubakar might as well kiss the governorship seat goodbye. But if Abubakar works hard in areas the APC is strong such as in Toro, the possibility of defeating him will remain a Herculean task.
But Alhaji Aminu Mohammed Danmaliki, the Deputy Director of the APC campaign council in the state is optimistic of the chances of Governor Abubakar being elected for the second time.
He said: “I believe APC will win because APC has won 80 per cent of the other elections except this election that is inconclusive.
“Mark you the results of Tafawa Balewa local government has not been announced. I believe you will be surprised if the result had been announced. So I believe we will win Tafawa Balewa again Tafawa Balewa is our domain and if you ask me about Bogoro.”
On his own part, Dogara who is beaming with confidence of victory after what PDP’s successful outing in the governorship election in the state, advised the governor to take the honourable path of conceding defeat, especially as he had boasted severally in the past that he did not need the votes from the speaker’s constituency to be reelected as governor.
Dogara said, “You have heard him severally tell the world, about two times, that I as the speaker, that I am lightweight. He said because I represent an area, that is my constituency, that the highest votes that can come from that area is 70,000 and in the last 2015 election, he won his election with over 300,000 votes and he doesn’t require one vote from my constituency to be a governor. Now, I want the media to ask him, will it therefore not amount to unprecedented shamelessness for him to now go to my constituency, Tafawa Balewa, with “only seventy thousand votes that he doesn’t require” to campaign for their votes or to illegally source for votes from there to make up and be a governor? If there is any honour on his part, having declared that he doesn’t need one single vote from there, I think honour demands that he should even surrender at this point that he has lost his election. That is the truth.”
The PDP candidate Senator Bala Mohammed on his path often enjoins the people of the state to protect their votes from being stolen.
Mohammed is optimistic of victory as the state heads for supplementary election.
Indeed his chances are boosted by the call by prominent Islamic clerics in the state including Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi and Idris Abdulaziz of Dutse Tanshi who directed their supporters to vote for the PDP candidate.
But former political adviser to Isa Yuguda, immediate past governor of the state, believes nothing except God can stop Abubakar’s second coming as the people of Bauchi State are happy with Abubalar.
He is confident that with the support of his principal and other prominent politicians such as Adamu Muazu, Abubakar will be re elected.
As the APC and PDP in Bauchi await the results of the rerun, the chances of the two parties are hotly being debated by supporters across both divides.
With a slim margin of 4056, supporters of the PDP candidates believes victory is not far from them. Most of them even engaged in celebrations and rallies, calling on INEC to declare Mohammed winner. But the police have banned such rallies to maintain the peace.
Supporters of the APC candidate are not giving up. They are confident that after rerun in the 15 local governments, where Abubakar won in several of them, they believe he will poll enough votes to emerge winner.
Thus, the pendulum can swing either way and whoever INEC announces the winner, the outcome of the race will continue to be discussed for a long time to come.