2023 presidency: The odds against Atiku

If he decides to join the 2023 general election race as some of his supporters are urging him to do and he can secure the ticket of his party, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar will unarguably be the most experienced contest on the ballot for Nigeria’s presidential election scheduled for February 2023.

The retired Customs officer began the quest to realize his ambition of ruling Nigeria in 1993 when he contested for the presidential ticket of Social Democratic Party at the primaries of the party in Jos, Plateau State.

He lost the ticket to the late MKO Abiola who won the election. Abiola was not allowed to assume office and the crisis that followed prolonged the military interregnum in Nigeria’s politics for six more years.

However, Atiku as the Vice President was one of the politicians who took over power at the exit of the military in 1999. He fell out with his boss, Olusegun Obasanjo at the beginning of their second term and in the crisis that followed, he was forced to leave the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

He found succour in the then opposition Action Congress on which platform he contested the presidency in 2007, coming distant third to the winner, and the candidate of PDP,  Umaru Yar’Adua and then General Muhammadu Buhari who contested on the platform of the All Nigeria’s Peoples Party, ANPP, one of the legacy parties of the now ruling All Progressives Congress, APC.

In 2011, the former Vice President returned to the PDP and attempted to snatch the ticket of the party from Goodluck Jonathan who had taken over as Nigeria’s President following the death of Yar’Adua. However, his ambition was frustrated at the PDP’s primary as members of the party overwhelmingly endorsed the candidacy of Jonathan who went on to win the election.

Ahead of the 2015 general election, the former Vice President had joined the APC where he contested for the presidential ticket which he lost to President Buhari. Atiku returned to the PDP ahead of the 2019 general election. He contested the presidential ticket of the party and against all expectations and scheming, he defeated Governor Aminu Tambuwal to emerge as the candidate of PDP for the 2019 presidential election.

But he lost to the incumbent and the candidate of the APC. Atiku celebrated his 75 birthday last year and will be over 76 when Nigeria will hold its next general election.

Many, including supporters of the Vice President and members of PDP, believe he would be too old and should not run again. In a recent statement, Kassim Afegbua who worked for Atiku Campaign Organisation as a spokesperson in 2019 advised the former vice president, not to contest the presidency in 2023.

In a statement, Afegbua said Atiku should not make himself a “perpetual candidate” for the presidency, adding that it is immoral for “such an old man to attempt another round of political contestation”.

He noted  Atiku had after the 2019 presidential election abandoned his supporters in Nigeria and sought refuge in faraway Dubai. “It was a case of a general abandoning his troops on the battlefield. Rather than draw strength from his presence, his absence exposed us to all manner of challenges”. Afegbua said the promoters of Atiku’s aspiration “know in their heart of hearts that it is a project that is dead on arrival”.

According to him, Atiku “cannot assume the role of a perpetual candidate or professional aspirant year in, year out, of the party as though the party was established for him alone. It defeats all sense of logic for such an old man to attempt another round of political contestation at a time the general feeling and mood in the country supports a younger Nigerian from the southern extraction of the country.”

In the same vein, Dare Adeleke, a former youth leader of PDP in the South-west said,   “There is absolutely no doubt that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has done well in nation-building. He is also a highly detribalised Nigerian but, unfortunately, he did not get into power.

Adeleke, however, said that at the age of 75, even if power was to be unfairly retained by the North, Atiku should not seek power again, but rather mentor younger generation to take the country to the promised land”.

He added that the former VP should encourage members of the party such as Governors Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, Nyesom Wike of Rivers and Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta who are young and have remarkably shown what their generation can do with their present performance in governance in their various states to run for the presidency.

Also, when Governor Seyi Makinde, believed to be one of the new power brokers in PDP, warned Nigerians against electing people who are above 70 years of age as president in 2023, it was believed that he had Atiku and former governor of Lagos, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu who has also declared his intention to run for the presidency in 2023 in mind.

Makinde who spoke during the 65th birthday anniversary and thanksgiving service of Rev Samson Ayokunle, President of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and the launch of a ministry in Ibadan, the capital of Oyo State urged Nigerians to choose wisely in 2023 by electing people who have the energy to rule the country.

“We have seen a lot of elder statesmen who want to run this country at age 75 or 78. I want them to think twice and I am saying to the people of Oyo State and Nigeria that this world is not easy. “You can delegate, ask people to go all over the place but when they are reporting to you, if something has not been added, a few things may have been removed,” he said.

“We are in election season basically and what I will say to us as a people is that we need to choose wisely and elect the people who have the energy to truly serve the country,” Makinde added.

But supporters of the former vice president have said he is in top shape despite his age. They also argued that he has the experience to take Nigeria out of the woods as a self-made man who has been able to build multi-billion businesses after he retired from Customs and he is healthy enough to rule the country.

In its reaction to the statement of Afegbua for instance, Edo Progressive Alliance for United Nigeria (EPAUN) argued that despite his age, Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore transformed his country into prosperity.

It added that the former vice president had a unifying vision which is necessary for moving Nigeria forward.

The group also noted that back home former President Obasanjo was able to give quality leadership,

including boosting the economy and attracting foreign investments that created GDP growth that averaged 6.95 per cent and used his influence to secure $18 billion debt relief for Nigeria in 2006 despite his age.

“Age didn’t also stop President Ronald Reagan from creating an economic boom. Again, age didn’t stop Mahathir Mohammed of Malaysia from transforming his country socially and economically. In fact, when Mahathir’s successor messed up the country, Malaysians had to call him out of retirement to come and serve again at the age of 90,” said the group.

The group, therefore, said the focus should be on Atiku’s competence rather than his age.

But the biggest obstacle against the ambition of Atiku appears to be the quest for power shift to the Southern part of Nigeria.

The Southern and Middle Belt Leaders’ Forum (SMBLF) recently re-echoed this when they warned that any political party that does not zone its presidential ticket to the South ahead of 2023 should not expect support from the region.

As contained in a communiqué after its meeting in Abuja in the middle of January, SMBLF said its position was based on the need to engender a fair and even sharing of power in the country. It pointed out that the northern part of the country would have fully enjoyed the office of the president of the country for the full statutory period of eight years by 2023, “hence, the presidency should rotate to the South.

“The basis of any viable democracy, especially in a diverse and complex country such as Nigeria is fair and even sharing of power,” SMBLF said in the communiqué, signed the leader of the forum, Chief Edwin Clark; Chief Ayo Adebanjo, leader of Afenifere; Professor George Obiozor, President-General, Ohanaeze Ndigbo and Dr Pogu Bitrus, National President, Middle Belt Forum (MBF).

Other groups including members of PDP have also spoken in the same vein.  “For me, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar should quit his quest for the presidency and support a southern Nigerian candidate in the spirit of fairness, equity and justice that will assuage the feelings of stakeholders from the southern part of Nigeria. It will be against the run of play and natural justice for any aspirant of Northern extraction to show interest in the 2023 presidential election within the Peoples’ Democratic Party threshold. It will offend national sentiments, emotions and logic for anyone from the North to show such interest given our diversities and heterogeneous political configurations”, Afeguba said.

Also, Adeleke, the former PDP youth leader noted that 10 out of 16 leaders of Nigeria till date are or were northerners: “The South has had six, including Ernest Shonekan, whose tenure was an interim headship of government and only lasted a few months before he was forced to hand over to Gen. Sani Abacha.

It is, therefore, pertinent to note that one of the reasons why President Goodluck Jonathan was ousted was because, the North felt it had to complete its tenure, with the fact that late President Umaru Yar’Adua, who died while in power did not complete his tenure”. He added that with Buhari, the North has had another eight years. “If we were to adhere to the idea of the rotational presidency, it is now time again for the South to unite and take over the mantle of leadership”, said Adeleke who argued that those making a case for Northern presidency are not being fair to the South and may not be looking at the far-reaching implications of another Northern president.

But Atiku who campaigned for the presidency in 2011 based on the need to complete the two-term for the North cut short by the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua in office has said where the president comes from has never been the solution to the series of problems facing the nation. Speaking at the meeting of the PDP National Executive in 2021, Atiku said the next president can come from any region.

“Where the president comes from has never been the problem of Nigeria, and I can cite examples; neither will it be the solution. There is no such thing as a president from Southern Nigeria or a president from Northern Nigeria. There is only one president from Nigeria, for Nigeria, by Nigerians.”

He has the support of Northern groups like the Northern Elders Forum, which has indicated that its support for any presidential candidate in the 2023 election will be based on competence and not zoning.

The agitations for power shift to the South which has been fiercer in the South-east region which has not produced an occupier of Aso Rock presidential villa since 1999.

Different groups in the region have argued that it would be morally reprehensible and against the spirit of fair play if the region is denied the opportunity of producing the next Nigeria’s president.

Already, politicians from the region have been declaring the intention to contest the presidency in 2023, with some arguing that the two leading parties should give their tickets to people of South-east origin. But some analysts have said if any party would give its ticket to the South-east, it should be PDP which has enjoyed the dominant support of the people of the region since 1999.

Those who have already declared their intention to run include former Senate President Anyim Pius Anyim, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, Governor Dave Umahi and Senator Rochas Okorocha.

Aware of this fact, campaigners of the Atiku 2023 presidency led by Chief Raymond Dokpesi were busy going round the South-east last week. Dokpesi, who is described as the Chairman of the Technical Committee for the actualization of Atiku Abubakar presidential ambition was in Ebonyi last Friday where he tried to justify why the South should not seek to produce Nigeria’s president in 2023.

Dokpesi said the South has had a presidential position for 16 years from 1999 and 2007 and from 2009 and 2015, hence, the North should produce the next president of the country in 2023 in line with the rotational presidency in the country.

The media mogul also described those clamouring for the southern presidency as selfish individuals, fighting for their interests and not for the interest of the South.

“The South had the presidency from 1999-2007 and again from 2009-2015. The tenure of the North is not yet expired, once it is expired, the South will produce the President, the South-east in particular. All those clamouring for the Presidency to come to the south in 2023 are not asking for it because of the South, they are asking it for their particular interest and the zone they come from”. Dokpesi had earlier argued that the issue of rotation and zoning of the presidency should be discussed based on political parties.

According to him, while it may be right to ask APC to zone its presidential ticket to the South after eight years of Buhari, the same demand cannot be made of PDP where for the 16 years it was in power, the North only had the opportunity of ruling for about two years.

But in Ebonyi, Dokpesi further poured cold water on the presidential aspiration of the Igbo when he told them that they should also not expect succour from the APC if they are locked out of PDP.  “And I can tell you for free of charge even the APC itself will not bring it to the South-east, the clamour for it is for the benefit of the South-west, not for the benefit of the South-east. We are interested in power shifting to the South-east and we have to lay the proper foundation. Time and care are required,” he said.

Earlier in Anambra, Dokpesi had tried to woo the South-east that Atiku would only do one term and hand over to somebody from the region in 2027 if they support him, an offer which was promptly rejected by Ohanaeze Ndigbo. Ohanaeze Secretary-General, Okechukwu Isiguzoro described the offer as a collective disrespect to the people of the South-east.

He said: “Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide has declared openly that attempts to trick and entice the South-east with attractive offers from the ally of former vice president and 2019 PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, Raymond Dokpesi to get South-east’s support for his principal (Atiku) in 2023 are hoaxes and collective disrespect on the sensibility of the people of South-east. No amount of enticing promises will make the South-east swap their right to the 2023 presidency to anyone.

“Atiku Abubakar’s refusal to adhere to a written request from Igbo elders for a Mandela option of a single tenure in 2019 will continue to haunt his 2023 presidential ambitions. Instead, he replied to Igbo leaders in 2019 with his then six-year economic blueprint for Nigeria (2020-2026), which was a clear understanding of having the ambition of a two-term as president if elected.

“This evidence is now contradictory to the recent request from Atiku’s ally for Southeast’s support, as no force can thwart the 2023 Igbo Presidency Project with the vice-presidential offer to the South-east, which is not feasible, as there will be a power shift from the North to the East in 2023”.

Then, there is a question of where the PDP will zone its 2023 president ticket. With the election of Iyorcha Ayu from the North-central as the national chairman of the party, the convention of PDP is that its presidential candidate should come from the Northern part of the country. But the party had insisted that the zoning it used for the election of members of its National Working Committee last November has nothing to do with the zoning of its presidential ticket.

And when former Governor of Niger State, Dr Babangida Aliyu said that the PDP had agreed to re-zone the presidency to the northern region despite its agreement that any candidate could contest the election, he was shouted down by the party.

But the party seemed not to have made up its minds on the zoning of its presidential ticket. This newspaper learnt that the party is being cautious with the demands of the people from the Southern part of the country for its presidential ticket.

Wike, the foremost power broker in the party is said to be torn between supporting zoning of the PDP to the South to meeting the presidential aspirations of the chieftains of the party such as Governor Udom Emmanuel and Pius Anyim.

But Wike is also said to be supporting Governors Tambuwal and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi as presidential candidates.

Some reports had indicated that Wike, who will also complete his two-year tenure as governor of Rivers in 2023 is also exploring the possibility of contesting for the presidency.

However, as the zoning goes, sources told this newspaper that Atiku may not be in the reckoning for the governors who now pull the levers in the PDP as seen when they effectively installed their loyalists for all the positions of the party’s NWC at the last December convention of the party.

But Atiku supporters said he was in a similar position during the 2018 convention when the Rivers State governor openly declared his support for his Sokoto State counterpart, Aminu Tambuwal. Atiku had at that convention held in Wike’s backyard defeated Tambuwal to get the PDP’s presidential ticket in a deft political move.

Will Atiku repeat the same feat when the party holds the primary to elect its presidential candidate and run for the presidency again? These are questions that will be answered before the end of 2023.