Razaq Bamidele
Now that one of the two much-awaited governorship elections is over, it calls for an appraisal of its outcome on the 2023 presidential election as well as its effect on the stand of the two leading political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The September 19, 2020 Edo election ended in victory for Governor Godwin Obaseki of the PDP who followed 307,955 votes to defeat his main opponent, APC’s Pastor Ize-Iyamu who had 223,619 votes.
Before the intraparty dispute that denied Godwin Obaseki the APC governorship second term ticket, the party was the incumbent while the PDP was the opposition.
But shortly after the aggrieved Obaseki dumped the APC along with his Deputy, Philip Shaibu and other supporters, the table instantly turned, bringing the PDP to the driver’s seat and pushing the APC to the background.
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Again, before June this year when Obaseki defected to the PDP, APC had been controlling 20 states against the PDP’s 15, leaving only one state for the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). But with Obaseki’s defection, the PDP moved up to 16 with APC having 19 and APGA one.
And with the PDP retaining Edo State, the status quo still remains.
The battleground now shifts to Ondo State on October 10, to determine if the PDP would pull one more from the 19 APC’s.
How they stand after the Edo election:
APC states
Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, Kaduna, Kebbi, Kogi, Osun, Ogun, Lagos, Ekiti, Imo, Katsina, Niger, Ondo, Nasarawa, Plateau and Kwara.
PDP states
Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Akwa-Ibom, Cross-River, Rivers, Bayelsa, Zamfara, Edo, Adamawa, Sokoto, Taraba, Benue, Bauchi, Oyo, Delta.
APGA state
Anambra.
The Ondo obstacle
Winning Edo State, though has given the PDP a bit of relief, the party needs to secure victory in Ondo State to change the status quo and kindle its hope of a comeback in the 2023 presidential poll.
Expectedly, as things stand now, the PDP would feel that the Ondo election is not insurmountable and that the APC’s presumed invincibility is, after all, a ruse. This new confidence is reinforced by President Muhammadu Buhari’s commitment to free and fair election.
At the same time, APC would not dare to underrate the PDP.
It should not be lost that Ondo State regarded as a catchment area for the APC had before been with the governed by a supposed underdog, the Labour Party (LP) of Dr Olusegun Mimiko that flushed out the PDP government of the late Dr Olusegun Agagu.
Against this background, APC would go the extra mile to make sure that it retains the state on October 10.
Threat to godfatherism
PDP’s victory has significances on Nigeria’s political progress. One, Obaseki has assumed the toga of ‘killer of godfatherism’ by deflating the ego of his former boss, Mr. Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole, who boasted to have killed and buried godfatherism in Edo State, only to transform into a godfather.
Two, the status of the former Lagos State Governor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as the national leader of the APC was diminished by the party’s loss, especially with his last-minute video appeal to the Edo people to reject Governor Obaseki stirring resistance to what was regarded as an attempt to extend the Tinubu feudal empire to their state.
How PDP can make 2023 comeback
Commenting on PDP’s chance of winning the 2023 presidential election, a chieftain of the party and former minister of aviation, Chief Ebenezer Babatope said there is hope for his party if President Muhammadu Buhari continues to allow free, fair and credible elections as happened in Edo State.
Babatope commended President Buhari for the free hands given to the Edo people to choose their own governor. According to the former minister, if what happened in Edo State is allowed to continue, Nigerians would push out the APC from power in 2023 and that would be good for democracy.
“And if the PDP eventually comes in and messes up by not managing its victory well, Nigerians would again push them out”, the prolific columnist said.
The Edo experience, Babatope stressed, was an eye-opener that Nigerians are ready to strengthen the electoral processes if the leadership allows it.
He also said that the outcome of the Edo governorship election confirmed that Nigerians have been yearning for free and fair elections for long, and they are so civilised and adequately enlightened to be able to choose their own leaders for themselves without coercion.
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“Buhari did well in Edo and if he continues in that manner till 2023, he would leave a good and enviable legacy behind for the country,” Babatope stated, warning, however, that, if unnecessary electoral manipulation continues on the country’s political space, “it would destroy his name, his credibility, image and legacy”.
President Buhari himself attested to his commitment to fairness when he received the re-elected Governor Obaseki on a thank-you visit to the State House, Abuja last week.
He said, ”I am supposed to preside over all Nigerian interests whether I like it or not, but my single desire is to make sure that innocent people don’t suffer.
“That message I got across to the Inspector General of Police, that elections must be free and fair”.
Nigerians anticipate no less commitment in subsequent elections in the build-up to the 2023 grand polls.