2023: OSINBAJO’S BIG GAMBLE 

Akani Alaka writes on the intriguing battle for the presidential ticket of the ruling APC between Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, former Lagos governor, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu and other aspirants.

Given the events preceding his declaration and the general performance of President Muhammadu Buhari, his principal, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo must have no doubt anticipated that his entry into the 2023 presidential race will not be well received in many quarters across the country.

And as also expected, the fiercest storm that has attended the Monday, 11th April declaration for the presidency by Osinbajo has been from his Southwest home region.

The agitation that the Vice President should not enter the presidential race in deference to his former principal and Lagos governor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu had got louder since Osibanjo dared the unsolicited advice and threw his hat into the ring.

Supporters of Tinubu, whom Osinbajo served as commissioner in Lagos for eight years, and the Vice President had taken to the social and mainstream media to argue why each of the two men is the right person to carry the presidential flag of All Progressives Congress, APC in 2023 election.

Tinubu’s supporters argued that Osinbajo’s entrance into the presidential race is a betrayal of the former governor, who, according to them, was instrumental to his emergence as Vice President to President Buhari and brought him the limelight as his commissioner for Justice and Attorney General in Lagos for eight years.

They argued that the Vice President should have supported his former boss to fulfil his ‘lifelong ambition’ of governing the country on the platform of APC.

With Osinbajo making his declaration on the second day of the passion week, Tinubu’s supporters had invoked the imagery of Judas to describe him, in reference to the Biblical Judas who betrayed his master, Jesus. “This is the week that Judas Iscariot betrayed Jesus Christ in the Christian calendar. That this declaration is coming this same week is not a mere coincidence. May God be with Tinubu in Pilates’ Court when he shall face the People’s verdict on whether to pardon him or nail him,” one of the supporters of the 2023 presidential ambition of the former Lagos governor tweeted.

Speaking in the same vein, Seye Oladejo, the spokesperson of APC in Lagos had condemned Osinbajo’s incursion into the presidential race, though he acknowledged his constitutional right to seek for election position.

“There is no problem. We knew he was going to declare. They should allow us to go to the primary. Let him come and face Asiwaju (Tinubu),” said Oladejo who likened the Vice President’s declaration speech delivered through a short video shared on the social media to a dirge. We acknowledge his constitutional right to contest. We also observed keenly how he struggled to paint his role in the past eight years in gold. At a time l thought I was listening to a dirge until I realized it was a political declaration in a living room. Nigerians will have something to say about the scorecard in the fullness of time. The last time I checked, the Vice President was in charge of the economy,” said the spokesperson who also noted that the Vice President could not deliver his polling unit in Lekki, Lagos to the APC in the 2019 general election.

Indeed, there were fears that members of APC in Lagos who are practically in the pocket of Tinubu may move against the Vice President’s ambition by deregistering him at his ward in Lagos, thus, voiding his membership of the party.

But Osinbajo seemed to have anticipated that possibility and had taken steps to move against it with the revelation that he had moved his membership of the APC from Lagos to Ogun State by his spokesman, Laolu Akande last week.

On the contrary, supporters of the Vice President had argued that it is Tinubu that should drop his presidential ambition for the greater good of the country. They have dismissed the claim of betrayal, noting that instead, the Vice President, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria is old enough to make his own decision.

Some had also disputed claims that Tinubu nominated Osinbajo single-handed as the Vice President to President Buhari. Even more, they argued that the Vice President is younger, fitter and healthier than Tinubu and will have the energy required to govern the country.

They also argued that as the number two man in the country for over six years now, Osinbajo is in good stead to continue with the programmes and policies of the Buhari administration.

Osinbajo’s supporters also argued that he is head and shoulders above Tinubu in terms of academic qualifications and being in tune with events of modern times.

Tinubu himself had disowned Osinbajo and his ambition a few hours after the Vice President indicated his intention last Monday. Speaking after a meeting with members of the All Progressives Congress Governors’ Forum with journalists, the former Lagos governor had pushed back on the claim that his son had declared his intention to run for the presidency in 2023.

Tinubu said: “I don’t have any son grown up enough to make such declaration.

“My mission here is to seek collaboration, support, and encouragement of my party, the APC, for my ambition to become the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as a replacement for President Muhammadu Buhari after his tenure,” he added.

The battle between the two men for the presidential ticket of APC is also reverberating across the Southwest chapters of APC. Members of the party, including the governors, are divided down the line in their support for the two gladiators.

This is particularly based on the expectations that the presidential ticket of APC may be zoned to the South and micro-zoned to the Southwest.

The Governor of Ondo, Rotimi Akeredolu is believed to be supporting the ambition of Osinbajo. On the contrary, Lagos and Osun governors, Babajide Sanwo-Olu and Oyetola are believed to be rooting for Tinubu.

However, it is not clear if the Ogun Governor, Dapo Abiodun has made up his mind on whom between the two men to support. His dilemma is understandable, given the fact that Tinubu made vital contributions to his emergence as governor and Osinbajo is also from Ogun State.

The other APC governor in the zone, Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti is reportedly getting set to also join the presidential race.

The contentions and claims of betrayal among groups mushrooming daily to champion the ambition of the two men have led to the fear of a repeat of the late Premier of the Western Region, Chief Obafemi Awolowo and Ladoke Akintola’s conflict which culminated in the ‘Wild, Wild West’ violence of the 60s in the Southwest.

However, a  former chief whip of the Senate, Prof. Sola Adeyeye in a statement entitled ‘Slandering Osinbajo with Dubious Parallelisms’, Adeyeye warned supporters of both men to avoid invoking such parallels which, according to him, portray abject ignorance and malignant mischief.  “The confusionists conjuring these poor parallelisms go as far as invoking the name of Judas Iscariot to demonise those who have acted outside their own scripts,” said Adeyeye who noted that the performance of the Buhari administration has made the APC less  “formidable as it did in 2015 when it tapped into widespread disaffection against the PDP to defeat the incumbent president.”

“For this reason, APC aspirants must not inflict mortal wounds on each other before entering the contest against the candidates of other parties,” the former Senator who further argued that neither Osinbajo nor Buhari could absolve themselves from the perceived shortcomings of Buhari’s presidency said.

“May God grant Osinbajo and Tinubu the exceptionalism to handle the nomination process with grace. Specifically, the APC must be spared the silly innuendos and slanderous snide remarks currently exuded by overzealous supporters of various aspirants.

Yet, Adeyeye had also listed one of the obstacles that will be faced by Osinbajo if he can get the presidential ticket of his party.

The Vice President had in his declaration speech predicated his ambition on his desire to continue with the legacies of the Buhari administration.

He listed some of the areas he will focus on in continuation of the strides of the Buhari administration to include a transformation of Nigeria’s security and intelligence architecture, completion of the reform of the country’s justice system with a focus on adequate remuneration and welfare of judicial personnel, the rapid advancement of infrastructure development, especially power, roads, railways and broadband connectivity, provision of excellent environment for businesses to thrive, agricultural revolution and creating a tech economy that will provide jobs for millions.

But Osinbajo’s declaration came against the backdrop of heightened insecurity and killings in parts of the country in the past few weeks.

For one, scores of passengers kidnapped by terrorists after the recent attack on the Abuja-Kaduna train are still in the custody of their abductors. Terrorists also continue to kill and kidnap people in scores across villages in Kaduna, Benue, Zamfara and Plateau among other states. This was in addition to the downward turn in the economy, worsening electricity supply challenges, the declining value of the naira and rising inflation.

The economic and security situation is making living difficult for most Nigerians, hence, the criticism of Osinbajo’s promise to continue with the administration’s policies.

However, Nigerians will have the opportunity of allowing or disallowing Osinbajo to take over from Buhari only if his name was on the ballot in the 2023 presidential election. For now, the job of choosing which name will be on the presidential ballot for the APC in the 2023 presidential election is in the hands of members of the APC who will act as delegates at the presidential primary of the party.

Therefore, for the two men, the focus, for now, is on getting the support of the delegates for their party’s presidential primaries, which, according to the timetable of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC must hold latest in June this year.

Osinbajo had met with some APC governors the night he declared his presidential ambition. He had also hosted members of the National Assembly and other stakeholders to iftar in the past few weeks, even as his foot soldiers have fanned out across the country to get the support of the party members and generality of Nigerians for him.

In the same vein, Tinubu had met with APC governors, influential chieftains of APC, ex-lawmakers who are members of the party at the state and national level, and National Assembly members among others.

Osinbajo, according to sources, is banking on the connection and relationship he had built with the governors as chairman of the National Economic Council and other platforms in the past seven years to get their support.

According to a source, Osinbajo had utilized the NEC platform to get Buhari’s approval of financial succour for the states, especially when allocation to the subnational level was very low as a result of poor earnings from the sale of crude oil.

Also, the Vice President frequently visited states across Nigeria on the invitation of the governors to inaugurate projects and initiatives of federal government agencies, and he has also used the opportunity to get close to the governors and the people.

Some governors, including Nasir El- Rufai of Kaduna State are said to be in support of the presidential ambition of the Vice President. Osinbajo had also developed relationships with APC lawmakers in the National Assembly through his involvement in the annual budget, the finance bill and other bills. The Vice President is also said to have the support of some leading traditional rulers across the country, including in the North.

Even then, the stakeholders consulted by the Vice President have been careful not to openly endorse his presidential ambition so far.

Former presidential adviser and chieftain of APC in Borno state, Senator Muhammed Abba Aji believes that Osinbajo should be supported to get the presidential ticket of APC if the party is desirous of winning the next general election.

He added that Osinbajo has a solid support base in the North and thriving circles of influential supporters across the South despite the challenges facing the Buhari administration. Abba Aji cited the spontaneous nationwide celebrations that greeted Professor Osinbajo’s declaration for the 2023 presidency to back his claim. “I have been in politics since the early ’80s and I can tell you that the Nigerian electorate is now much wiser, much more discerning and sophisticated than what you had in the past. The spontaneous rallies are a show of strength, asserting the power of the real people and it is a strong pointer to Professor Yemi Osinbajo’s very bright chances for ultimate electoral victory,” he said.

The former Senator also advised Tinubu to drop his presidential ambition for Osinbajo.

However, Tinubu’s supporters had argued that Osinbajo lacks the support base to win the presidential ticket.

They argued that the former Lagos governor who had been on the road to garner the support of members of his party for his presidential ambition since he declared his intention to run had also secured firm support of APC members from the Northwest and Northeast where the highest numbers of delegates for the presidential primary will come from.

Some governors, including Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano, and Aminu Masari of Katsina among others have openly endorsed Tinubu.

“Buhari knows that BAT is a colossus, he is a phenomenon, he has all the structures, he has the qualities, the character and foot soldiers all over Nigeria in the Southsouth, Southeast, Southwest, Northcentral, Northeast and the Northwest as well the Federal Capital Territory. We are moving and we are sure that our principal will be elected the President of Nigeria in 2023,” said Abiodun Longe, the Director of Media and Publicity, Tinubu Support Organisation, Ekiti State.

With this, they believe that Tinubu already has enough support to win the presidential primary of APC.

Sources said Osinbajo’s situation has not been helped by efforts to tag him as a religion irredentist which some supporters of Tinubu have been amplifying. This, it was gathered was already dwindling the support for Osinbajo among the religious sensitive members of the party in the Northwest.

However, Osinbajo is not just battling with Tinubu for the APC presidential ticket.

At least five other members of the party had so far indicated an interest in running on the platform of the party in the 2023 presidential election.

The other aspirants are Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi; Governor of Ebonyi State, David Umahi; Governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello; former governor of Imo State, Senator Rochas Okorocha; and Ihechukwu Dallas Chima.

Governor Fayemi had also indicated that he would declare his interest in the 2023 presidency at the end of the ongoing Ramadan fast.

Bello had for one indicated that he is not in support of zoning the presidential ticket of APC to the Southern part of the country.

He launched his 2023 presidential campaign in Abuja about three weeks ago amid a huge crowd at the famous Eagle Square.

But it is doubtful if he can muster enough support among the governors who are in control of the delegates to earn the presidential ticket of the party.

Umahi, Okorocha, Chima have anchored their ambition on the demand that the next president of Nigeria should be from the Southeast, a region that has not produced an executive president for Nigeria since 1960.

Indeed, the apex Igbo socio-cultural organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo had in statements to the media asked Osinbajo and Tinubu to drop their presidential ambition to support the aspirants from the Southeast in the interest of fairness and justice. The organization had also asked President Buhari to endorse an aspirant from the Southeast for the presidential ticket of APC.

Then, there is also Amaechi who has also embarked on a campaign to woo the Northern members of APC since he declared his presidential ambition.

However, while supporters of Tinubu are advocating that their principal can win the presidential primary without any endorsement, Osinbajo and the other aspirants are looking toward President Buhari for the anointing that will certainly strengthen their hands in the battle against Tinubu. Some of Osinbajo’s supporters, for instance, had argued that he is the one that the President talked about when he said he had a favourite person he wanted to succeed him in a media interview late last year.

Such endorsement by Buhari, according to Osinbajo’s supporters, would earn him the support of the governors who are in control of the delegates resulting in his emergence as the presidential candidate of the party through a consensus arrangement as done in the National Convention that produced Abdullahi Adamu as chairman of APC.

But other aspirants, who believe that they may not have the financial strength or support to battle Tinubu if it comes to election at the presidential primary are also looking at the same route to the APC presidential ticket.

The Southeast aspirants for example had argued that Buhari would support them as a demonstration of his support for the agitations for Igbo presidency. It is believed that Amaechi, a founding member of the APC has been using his Igbo name, Chibuike, to benefit from such anointing by the President.

Though he said he has not declared his intention to contest for the presidency, supporters of Abia-born Ogbonnaya Onu, the Minister of Science and Technology are also arguing that he has been anointed by President Buhari as his successor.

However, supporters of Tinubu who spoke with The Nigerian Xpress last week dismissed the calls for endorsement and consensus. “Osinbajo and other candidates should be ready to meet Jagaban on the field; let there be a free and fair contest and let the best man win”, said one of them.

Can Osinbajo defeat Tinubu or indeed, any of the APC aspirants to win the presidential ticket? That question will be answered in the next few weeks.