2023: THE ODDS AGAINST WIKE

Akani Alaka writes on the obstacles against the presidential ambition of Rivers Governor, Nyesom Wike

For Governor Nyesom Wike, there has been no looking back since he joined the still growing number of members of the Peoples Democratic Party, desirous of taking over from President Muhammadu Buhari as Nigeria’s President in 2023. The Rivers State governor had on Sunday 27 March declared his interest to contest for the 2023 presidential ticket of PDP in Makurdi, Benue State.

At the time of writing this story, Wike was among the presidential aspirants who had shelled out N40 million directly or by proxy to buy the presidential expression of interest and nomination forms of PDP. The still-growing number of presidential aspirants include Akwa Ibom State Governor, Udom Emmanuel; a businessman, Muhammad Hayatudeen; former vice president Atiku Abubakar; former presidents of the Senate, Abubakar Bukola Saraki and Anyim Pius Anyim; Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed; Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal; former Anambra governor Peter Obi; Publisher of Ovation International, Dele Momodu; Oliver Diana Teriela and Nwachukwu Anakwenze.

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If none of the aspirants chickens out along the way, Wike will contest for the presidential ticket alongside the others at the national convention to elect the PDP’s presidential candidate which the party has already fixed for May 28.

Jabs At Atiku, Tambuwal, Saraki

While declaring his presidential ambition in Makurdi, Wike had indicated that he deserved the presidential ticket of the PDP because of his loyalty to the party.
And in a veiled reference to Atiku, Saraki and Tambuwal, Wike said some of the presidential aspirants who left the PDP in 2015 were responsible for the defeat of the party by the now ruling All Progressives Congress, APC after 16 years in power.
The three presidential aspirants had defected from PDP to APC ahead of the 2015 general election and participated in the campaign that led to the ouster of the party from power. The defection of the three men alongside other PDP heavyweights to APC had left the party floundering and in the throes of death.
Analysts generally agree that Wike was instrumental and played pivotal roles in the battle to salvage PDP from totally slipping into oblivion ahead of the 2019 general election.
However, Atiku, Tambuwal and Saraki returned to the PDP before the 2019 general election. They also contested for the party’s presidential ticket right in Wike’s state capital, Port Harcourt with Atiku emerging victorious.
Still, the Rivers State governor believes that the three aspirants considered to be front runners in the race for the PDP presidential ticket have no moral right to seek the presidential ticket of the party, having abandoned it at a very critical moment. “Let these people who are interested in the presidency in the PDP tell us their contributions. You claimed to be one of the founding fathers of the party, but you left and came back; you have become an ordinary person in the new PDP. If you form a company and run away because the company is not doing well, you come back and found that it is now doing well and you want to come and take over,” said Wike.
“Some people want to use Nigeria to get back their private business. Let them mention their private sector that survived. Is it the bank that your father had?” Wike added in obvious reference to Saraki who allegedly mismanaged his father’s bank,  Societe Generale into collapse and Atiku whose chain of businesses was said to be struggling as a result of persecution from the Buhari administration.

Give me PDP presidential and Go To Sleep

On the contrary,  the Rivers State governor had in his various engagements since the declaration insisted that he is well equipped to snatch power from the ruling APC in 2023.
Speaking when ‘Friends and associates’ presented expression of interest and nomination forms to contest the 2023 presidential election to him last week, Wike said APC has let Nigerians down and the time is ripe for the opposition to take overpower.
Speaking against the background of attacks on the Kaduna-Abuja rail route and the Kaduna International Airport by terror groups, the governor lamented that the APC administration has failed to fulfil its constitutional obligations to Nigerians. “We took the oath of office to protect life and property and without this, there’s no governance. We can’t talk about food and agriculture when people cannot go to the farm. We cannot improve the economy when investors have lost confidence in the country and when we cannot obey simple court orders,” said Wike who also lamented that corruption has festered under the APC administration.
“APC has failed and Nigerians have realized the lies they told them. Now it’s time to take over the affairs of this country from APC and you need someone who has the courage and I have that courage,” said the Rivers state governor.
“But, let the truth be told, it’s not sufficient to only appear on the ballot but we need someone who will sack the APC. If you give us the ticket, go home and sleep. I take this form and to tell you yes, I am prepared for this assignment,” he added.

You Deserve It

Senator Sulaimon Mohammed Nazif who presented the forms to Governor Wike on behalf of the group explained that the gesture was due to their confidence in his ability to lead the country and offer relief to millions of Nigerians caving under exacerbating socio-economic pressures.
While presenting the forms Senator Mohammed Nazif noted that Wike had successfully transformed Rivers State and should be given the feat to replicate a similar feat at the national level.
In addition, he noted that the Rivers State governor played a critical role in ensuring the survival and growth of the PDP.
“We are at a critical moment in the history of our nation and this time calls for companionate and courageous leadership. We have seen the leadership of competence, empathy and compassion – we have seen these with you and we make bold to say he that has been faithful in little qualifies for additional responsibility. What you have done in Rivers state is a testimony that you can replicate the same at the national level. Please believe you’re that leader that will bring Nigeria out of the woods,” Nazif said at the event witnessed by Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, former Ekiti Governor, Mr Ayodele Fayose, members of both chambers of the National Assembly, leaders of the party, the Speaker of Rivers State House of Assembly, local government chairmen and party chairmen, Chief Ferdinand Alabraba, O.C.J Okocha, Chibudom Nwuche, Ima Anyanwu among others.

Zoning Hurdle

But as much as some members of the party are excited, Wike’s ambition faces two key hurdles – the campaign against zoning in his party and the demands by the Southeast for the presidential ticket of the PDP.
Though he had a couple of times said his ambition was not anchored on the campaign that the presidency must return to the South after Buhari’s tenure, Wike had insisted that the PDP must respect zoning as stated in its constitution.
The Rivers State governor had said he supported a Northern presidential aspirant to get the ticket of the party in 2019 because he believes in power rotation as also captured in Article 7 of the PDP constitution.
As a result, he expressed his displeasure over the rush by presidential candidates from the Northern parts of the country, including Tambuwal whom he supported in 2019 to buy the 2023 PDP’s presidential nomination form.
Indeed, the Rivers State governor had while appearing on a television programme last week disclosed that he is not supporting the presidential ambition of Tambuwal this time around because it runs contrary to earlier agreement to zone the PDP 2023 presidential ticket to the South.
“Tambuwal is still my very good friend. In 2019, I supported him because we zoned the presidency to the North. In 2017, all of us agreed that this should be zoned to the North and that was why nobody from the South collected forms for that election and I have no regret about that. What I do not like is for people to deny that there is no zoning or there should be no zoning. That is what I do not like,” said Wike.
“The provision of our constitution is clear under Section 7, Sub-section 3C. It says, there should be a rotation of party offices and elective offices. The founding fathers of the party know the complexity, they know the diversity of this country and they made sure that for equity, fairness and justice, this should be done,” he added.
However, he also said his decision to contest the presidency was not based on the demands that the PDP ticket should be zoned to the South, but because he has what it takes to govern the country.
Aside from Tambuwal, the other PDP presidential aspirants from the North believed to be strong enough to get the party’s ticket are Governor Bala Mohammed, Atiku and Saraki.
The Northern aspirants and their supporters had argued against zoning the presidential ticket to the South. Rather, they said the ticket should be left open and aspirants should fan out into the country to meet party members to canvass for support for their ambition among party members.
Members of the party who are against the demand for zoning had also argued that Northerners occupied the presidential seat for only about two years for the 16 years the PDP was in power.
Some members also insisted that only a Northerner can defeat the APC candidate who is most likely to be a Southerner in the 2023 presidential election. The leadership of PDP has also been ambivalent about zoning. While an official of the party said some months ago that the presidential ticket would not be zoned, the party last week set up a 37-member committee on zoning. This was after it began selling nomination forms for presidential aspirants. Thus, analysts believe that the setting up of the committee may just be a way of buying time as the party may have decided for all aspirants from all corners of the country to go into battle for the presidential ticket.

Southeast Demand

But even then, if the PDP decided to zone its ticket to the Southern part of the country, analysts insisted that the Southeast should be favoured rather than Wike’s South-South which has had six years in the presidency with former President Goodluck Jonathan.
Last week, leaders of the Southeast at a forum in Enugu reiterated the demand that the PDP and APC must zone their 2023 presidential tickets to Igboland.
The Igbo leaders, who converged on Enugu under the umbrella of Ahamefuna socio-cultural organisation hosted by former Governor of Enugu State, Dr Okwesilieze Nwodo insisted that denying the Southeast presidency in 2023 would be tantamount to pushing the Ndigbo out of Nigeria.
Among Igbo leaders present at the event were Chief Emmanuel Iwuanyanwu; Obi of Onitsha, Igwe Alfred Achebe, Prof. Anya O. Anya, Sen. Ben Obi, Prof. Uche Azikiwe, Mrs Beatrice Ekwueme, Dr Okwesilieze Nwodo, Chief Achike Udenwa, Prof. ABC Nwosu, Chief Dubem Onyia, Sen. Azụ Agboti, Prof. Cyprian Onyeji, Prof. Uzodimma Nwala, Chief Onyema Ugochukwu, Maj. Gen. Collins Ihekire (rtd), Maj. Gen. Godwin Ugwuoke (rtd), Dr. Joe Nworgu, Igwe Julius Nnaji, Prof Elochukwu Amucheazi and Chief Onyemauche Nnamani.
The Igbo leaders argued that having not produced an executive president for Nigeria since the country’s attainment of independence, the Southeast should be favoured by the two major political parties in the zoning of their 2023 presidential ticket.
“Igbo, without counting costs, have supported other zones to produce presidents of Nigeria. Now that it is our turn, we ask for reciprocal support, for the South-east to produce a Nigerian president with the capacity and confidence to deal with Nigeria’s numerous problems,” said Sen. Ben Obi, one of the conveners of the Forum.
Thus, there were reports that one of the organisations driving the Southeast presidency project recently criticised Governors Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi and Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia and Enugu State respectively for endorsing Wike as the 2023 presidential candidate of PDP when the Rivers State governor declared his ambition in Benue State as well as at the South-east zonal executive committee meeting of the party in Enugu.
“Unsuspecting participants of the Enugu meeting are already expressing regret at the betrayal of the Igbo Presidency Project. The Southeast mandate is hereby calling on Ndigbo to rise and condemn this act of betrayal by Ugwuanyi and Ikpeazu. We demand that all political parties in the country pick their 2023 presidential candidates from the southeast. The South-east region has sacrificed a lot and must be allowed to produce the next president of the country.”

Wike Versus Atiku, other Northern Aspirants

Aside from this, there is also doubt about the possibility of Wike beating frontline Northern aspirants candidates who had recently been talking of choosing a consensus candidate among them in recent times.
Saraki, Tambuwal, and Mohammed have been going around the country as part of the moves to present a consensus candidate for the 2023 presidential elections.
The three aspirants, who said Atiku is also involved in the process, said arriving at a consensus candidate will reduce the likely rancour in the process of choosing the party’s flagbearer end enable the PDP to pull resources together to fight the ruling party.
However, Wike is not part of the arrangement and it is doubtful if he will be, given the fact that he is practically fighting all those involved at the moment.
Analysts contended that the odds in the battle for the presidential ticket seemed to favour Atiku, especially if the party eventually decides not to zone its presidential ticket. The former  Vice President has been campaigning to get the support of party members who will be the delegates to the presidential primary and many members of PDP’s National Working Committee and other organs of the party are his associates.
Even, Atiku is making inroads in the South-south where Wike is expected to forge a governorfront in pursuit of his presidential ambition.
According to the former deputy governor of Akwa Ibom State, Patrick Ekpotu despite the agitations within PDP for the South to produce the president in 2023, political pragmatism dictates that the party needs the experience and reach of Atiku to wrest power from the APC.
What’s more, one of the governors in the South-south has also obtained a ticket to run for the presidency under the PDP. There are speculations that the governor of Delta State, Ifeanyi Okowa is also nursing presidential ambition.
The challenge for PDP is how its biggest financier will take his inability to win the presidential ticket?
But the party can also take assurance in the promise by Wike that he is ready to abide by the zoning formula arrived at by the party and also support the presidential candidate who emerges from the arrangement.