2023 Presidency: EMEFIELE’S THORNS IN TINUBU’S PATHWAY

For one,  the story of how he battled and survived intrigues aimed at stopping his ambition from different interest groups within his party to emerge as the APC flag bearer will be one with many twists and bends.

Then, after his emergence, Tinubu has had to endure a vicious campaign impugning his reputation from all fronts. Critics have also raised questions about the state of the physical and mental health of the APC candidate following his many gaffes at the campaign grounds across the country.

Then, the road to the Presidency was suddenly made more difficult for Tinubu a few weeks before the election, as asserted by many members of the party by Godwin Emefiele, the Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Given the deluge of complaints from key chieftains of the party, Tinubu will surely point to Emefiele as the chief architect of his misery if he loses the election. The issue is the naira redesign policy of the CBN Governor which had led to misery in many parts of the country because of the inability of Nigerians to access their money from banks’ ATMs or over the counter.

Emefiele announced the plan to redesign and circulate new N200, N500, and N1,000 bank notes from 15 December 2022 last October. The new currencies, he added, would circulate alongside the old ones until 31 January 2023.

He had touted the benefits of the policy to include helping to reduce the amount of currency in circulation, rampant counterfeiting, especially the high denominations of N500 and N1000 bank notes as well as making ransom payments to terrorists and kidnappers more difficult.

Though the CBN, in its statement did not mention it as one of the benefits, some analysts had also said the policy was designed to frustrate politicians who had stored cash to buy voters in the 2023 election.

However, concerns about the potential hurt of the policy to the plan of APC to retain the Presidency began to manifest as Nigerians after depositing the old notes were unable to get the new ones from the banks.

The pains of lack of currency notes were compounded for many Nigerians by the scarcity and consequently, an astronomical rise in the price of petrol. The result was Nigerians in many parts of the country queuing for hours at petrol stations and ATMs and most times returning with empty tanks and pockets.

The twin scarcity was a further dent on the reputation of the APC-led government that many Nigerians had already declared a failure given its performance in the over seven years it has been in office.

The difficulty and suffering of Nigerians over fuel and currency scarcity were like a boon to the opposition as they initially seized upon it as a reason the APC cannot continue in power.

But for Tinubu, the obvious turning of the people against the platform he wanted to ride to the Presidency was not funny. Speaking during the APC campaign rally in Abeokuta, Ogun State on 25 January, the former Lagos governor alleged that fuel scarcity and the redesign of banknotes were aimed at sabotaging his victory at the February 25 presidential election.

He, however, vows to win despite the intrigues.  Tinubu stated, “They are full of mischief; they could say there is no fuel. They have been scheming to create a fuel crisis, but forget about it. Relax, I, Asiwaju, have told you that the issue of fuel supply will be permanently addressed.

“Let them increase the price of fuel, let them continue to hoard fuel, only them know where they have hoarded fuel, they hoarded money, they hoarded naira; we will go and vote and we will win, even if they changed the ink on naira notes. Whatever their plans, they will come to naught. We are going to win. Those in the PDP will lose.”

However, the opposition had said the attack was on President Buhari who was not only the Minister of Petroleum but had supported the CBN governor’s currency redesign policy. The opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP,  blamed the outburst on the failure of frustration by his inability to stop the cashless policy and CBN’s currency redesign project.

“Even though the CBN policy affects all the 18 political parties, Tinubu is the only one frustrated because his plan to deploy bullion vans and bribe poor voters and security agents on the day of the election has failed woefully. Also frustrated by President Muhammadu Buhari’s unwillingness to attend some of his insipid rallies, Tinubu launched an attack against the president, who doubles as the Minister of Petroleum,”  the presidential candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, in a statement by his Special Assistant, Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, stated.

However, in a swift reaction, the Director of Media and Publicity of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, Bayo Onanuga, in a statement, denied that Tinubu’s outburst was an attack on Buhari, stressing that the PDP which was allegedly working in cahoots with fifth columnists were the ones bent on inflicting avoidable pains on hapless Nigerians to achieve a political end.

He added that Tinubu did not mention, blame or accuse President Muhammadu Buhari for the current challenges in the country at the Abeokuta rally. Speaking at a rally in Gusau, Zamfara State about a week later,  Tinubu had also dismissed the rumours of a rift with the President.

But the President had continued to support the currency redesign policy and has so far resisted pressure by members of his party to ask the CBN to drop it by members of his party.

Anger over the hardship inflicted on the people by the policy had led to the stoning of the helicopter of the President in Kano a few weeks ago. The President had also been reportedly stoned in his Katsina home state.

Despite extending the deadline to February 10 and deploying the anti-graft agencies to stop banks from hoarding the currency,  the CBN has so far failed to alleviate the pains of Nigerians. The anger has led to protests in some states of the country.

A viral video of one of the protests in Abeokuta shows the protesters who were angry after roaming ATMs and banking halls across the town without being able to withdraw money from their accounts angrily tearing up a big banner of Tinubu and his running mate, Kashim Shetimma.

Buhari’s continued support for the policy drew the anger of members of APC and revived claims that the president may not be supportive of the ambition of Tinubu to succeed him.

Those peddling the claims had alleged that the president was virtually forced by the leadership of APC to participate in the campaign rally of Tinubu.

In the same vein, they also affirmed that the usual call by Buhari that Nigerians should vote for people of their choice as his successor shows a lack of commitment to the Tinubu project. Chieftains of APC had also alleged that Emefiele introduced the policy to frustrate the presidential ambition of Tinubu in cahoots with members of a cabal in the Presidency who have the ears of the president.

Members of the cabal, it was further speculated, were bent on retaining power in the Northern part of the country and, as such, have declared support for the presidential candidate of PDP.

The refusal of the president to yield to demands of the Progressive Governors’ Forum, who were members of his party to extend the date for the phase-out of the old naira notes in face of acute scarcity of the new ones was further cited as evidence.

Emefiele On APC’s Guillotine

The hush-hush speculations were given life during a series of recent media interviews by Kaduna Governor, Nasir El-Rufai. Speaking on a television breakfast programme, the governor said elements in the villa were creating stumbling blocks to make it difficult for Tinubu and the party to win the February 25 poll.

El-Rufai noted that the Progressive Governors were united in the call for an extension of the February 10, 2023 deadline for the cash swap following the redesign of N200, N500, and N1000. He added that the naira redesign policy was poorly implemented and the fallouts were increasingly making the APC unpopular.

The Kaduna State governor also disowned the policy saying APC did not promise Nigerians that it would redesign the national currency. “The problem is that we have deposited all the money in the banks but we are not getting new notes. We have a shortage problem.”

He alleged that “influential” elements in the villa sold the idea of the naira redesign project to Buhari who did not realize that they are aiming at achieving a selfish objective with it. “They are creating stumbling blocks to make it more difficult for us. These elements did not get what they wanted. Their candidate did not win and the governors were united and insisted that there will be no single candidate announcement, that there will be a competitive primary election and Asiwaju won.”

Plot Against Election/Tinubu

El-Rufai’s Kano counterpart, Abdullahi Ganduje was even more frontal about the claim that the whole naira design policy was designed to frustrate Tinubu’s ambition.

He told a radio station that the naira redesign policy was not the agenda of the APC, but that of those around the president and the governor of the CBN who wanted to run for president but was not successful.

“They don’t want the elections to be held or want another party to win. But we in our states have to ensure that things don’t go out of hand and if the president is listening to them then we (governors) must show our capacity just as we’ve done now.”

Different groups and individuals believed to be proxies to Tinubu have also spoken and continue to speak on how the naira redesign policy which was implemented along with the cashless policy of CBN which limits daily withdrawal by an individual over the ATM or bank counter to N20,000 was aimed at sabotaging the APC presidential candidate.

Indeed, the name of a particular aide of the president was mentioned as the head of the cabal working against Tinubu’s ambition in conjunction with the CBN governor at the Presidential Villa.

However, Emefiele has continued to argue that the policy was not targeted against any political party or individual. The leading opposition candidates including Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Atiku have encouraged the president not to yield ground to members of his party on the naira redesign policy.

Looming Legal Battle

Frustrated by the failure of Buhari to respond to their demands, three northern states of Kaduna, Kogi, and Zamfara had dragged the Federal Government to the Supreme Court seeking an order of Interim Injunction restraining “the Federal Government through the CBN or the commercial banks from suspending or determining or ending on February 10, the time frame with which the now older version of the 200, 500 and 1,000 denomination of the naira may no longer be legal tender pending the hearing and determination of their motion on notice for interlocutory.”

Moving the application last Wednesday, counsel to the three states,  Mr. A. I. Mustapha, SAN, urged the apex court to grant the application because the policy of the government has led to an “excruciating situation that is almost leading to anarchy in the land“. He lamented that the few Nigerians with bank accounts can’t even access their monies from the banks as a result of the policy. He further argued that unless the Supreme Court intervenes the situation will lead to anarchy because most banks are already closing operations.

A seven-member panel of the apex court led by Justice John Okoro, temporarily stopped the withdrawal of old Naira notes from February 10 as demanded by the governors: “An order of Interim Injunction restraining the Federal Government through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) or the commercial banks from suspending or determining or ending on February 10, the time frame with which the now older version of the 200, 500 and 1,000 denomination of the naira may no longer be legal tender pending the hearing and determination of their motion on notice for interlocutory injunction.”

However, the court is set to hear the substantive suit on Wednesday 15 February. Other APC states have indicated an interest in joining the suit and analysts have predicted a legal firework at the apex court on Wednesday. Abubakar Malami, the Attorney General of the Federation has also indicated his readiness to challenge the application of the governors.

Nevertheless, Tinubu said the Supreme Court ruling has saved Nigeria from a political and economic shutdown. The former governor, in a statement issued by Mr. Bayo Onanuga, Director, Media and Publicity, APC Presidential Campaign Council (PCC) noted that the policy had subjected the masses to pains.

He, therefore, said the APC governors who instituted the suit against the CBN and Federal Government at the Supreme Court, acted well on behalf of hapless Nigerians. “The governors have saved the country from needless political and economic crises and miseries. This has clearly become the unintended consequence of the monetary policy of the apex bank,” the statement quoted Tinubu as saying.

He noted that the Supreme Court ruling coincided with the advisory of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), urging for the extension of the deadline for the swap of the old naira notes.

“Our country was dangerously careering toward anarchy and political and economic shutdown. But with the Supreme Court interim ruling, our country has been pulled back from the precipices. We thank our Supreme Court Justices for ruling wisely on the side of the people who have been subjected to undue agony and pains since this policy was announced,” Tinubu said.

He had also asked the CBN to abide by the Supreme Court ruling by ensuring sufficient availability of naira notes whether old or new. He added that the apex bank should also sensitize the public to the ruling and the consequent validity of old notes.

The CBN had kept mum over the Supreme Court ruling though the Federal Government had said it will obey it. Will Nigerians punish Tinubu for the suffering inflicted on them by the cashless and naira redesign policy of Emefiele? The questions will be answered on February 25.